5011 Bear Trap Rd NW

Wilson, NC 27896

$163,400C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,396 sqft · Built 1994 · Manufactured · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,717/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$857
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $316/mo
• Annual: $3,790/yr
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.28%
• DSCR: 1.37
• 1% rule: 1.05%
• Cash to close: $45,752

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $163k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $158k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#374 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wilson County Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #119 of 178 in NC (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Hope Elementary (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #132 of 1,410 statewide, top 9%, 431 students, 49% FRL); Elm City Middle (math 39% / reading 50%, grade D, #169 of 475 statewide, top 37%, 444 students, 99% FRL); Fike High (math 37% / reading 51%, grade F, #367 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 1,046 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 58% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 39% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Wilson County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 580 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wilson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.4% in Wilson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.