5011 Bear Trap Rd NW · Wilson, NC 27896

$163,400

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,396 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1994 0.26 ac lot Est $170k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5011 Bear Trap Rd NW in Wilson--an affordable, move-in ready home offering space, comfort, and peace of mind with major updates already done for you. This 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home features approximately 1,400 square feet with spacious rooms, generous closet space, and a functional layout that fits both everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to enjoy the wood deck--perfect for relaxing evenings or weekend gatherings. Key updates include a new HVAC system (2021), roof replacement (2022), hot water heater (2022), and a recently replaced stove (2025), giving buyers confidence and minimizing immediate maintenance concerns. Priced at just $164,900, this home delivers strong

Key facts

• Wood deck
• Hot water heater
• Roof replacement

Tags

• WOOD DECK
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• ROOF REPLACEMENT
• HOT WATER HEATER
• RECENTLY REPLACED STOVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Unpaved parking
• Utilities: Municipal water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Entry level is 1
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built on crawl space
• Exterior features: Deck and porch; Chain link fence; Has a view; City street and state road frontage; Frontage details: see remarks

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace; Crawl space basement; Has central air conditioning; Electric forced-air heating; Five total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $163k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $316 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $163k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.4% in Wilson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#374 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wilson County Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #119 of 178 in NC (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Hope Elementary (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #132 of 1,410 statewide, top 9%, 431 students, 49% FRL); Elm City Middle (math 39% / reading 50%, grade D, #169 of 475 statewide, top 37%, 444 students, 99% FRL); Fike High (math 37% / reading 51%, grade F, #367 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 1,046 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 58% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 52% at this address vs 39% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Wilson County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 161 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 580 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wilson County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,498 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.28%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $170,312
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5005 Hunting Ridge Rd NW	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	3mo	$169,900	$136	74
4905 Hunting Ridge Rd NW	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	2mo	$152,500	$122	73
4902 Hunting Ridge Rd NW	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	13mo	$90,000	$72	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-6,392
• Equity at exit: $24,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $20,219
• Equity at exit: $14,128

Cash invested: $45,752 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27896

• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,717 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$857
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,391/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,318

Max offer price $163,400

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,850
• Closing costs: $4,902
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-19
   price $163,400
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $164,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,391 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,391 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,153
• − Property taxes: −$1,391
• − Insurance: −$817
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,649
• − Management: −$1,649
• − Depreciation: −$4,753
• Taxable income: $1,196
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$287
• After-tax cash flow: $3,503/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3705020
• Math proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,342
• Composite: 32.64/100
• National rank: #5665
• State rank: #119 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wilson

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #374
• US rank: #14674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wilson, NC
• County: Wilson County · 57,967 people
• City population: 57,967
• Metro: Wilson, NC
• Population (ZIP): 19,455
• Household income: $75,696
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 311.0

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,765 people
• By 2030: 82,492 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 81,054 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 78,610 · -5.0%
• By 2075: 71,865 · -13.2%
• By 2100: 62,792 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Black 24% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 0.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.4 2020: D+2.9 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+7.3 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.90%
• Current HPI: 173.5082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Wilson, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $163,400 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $164,900 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,391 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.