3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,400 sqft ·
Built 1920
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 43 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,554/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$996
Tax + insurance
−$263
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$326
Net cashflow
$-31/mo
Annual
$-375/yr
Cap rate
6.10%
Cash-on-cash
-0.70%
DSCR
0.97
1% rule
0.82%
Cash to close
$53,199
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-375/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (2.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (18.2% below list).
It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $155k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Cedar Ridge El (math 16% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 447 students, 96% FRL); G W Carver Middle (math 9% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,634 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 393 students, 96% FRL, charter); Waco H S (math 26% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 2,011 students, 88% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SRKWNHFPD6A1NY
· Data 4 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29