177 Piney Point Dr

Sam Rayburn, TX 75931

$185,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,060 sqft · Built 1988 · SingleFamily · Active · 116 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,241/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax + insurance: −$337
• HOA: −$60
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-387/mo
• Annual: $-4,642/yr
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.96%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $51,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (36.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (32.9% below list).
• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $117k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#606 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Brookeland ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #445 of 1,141 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 419 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $121k; list at $185k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.5% in Sam Rayburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.