177 Piney Point Dr · Sam Rayburn, TX 75931

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1988 0.58 ac lot $90/sqft · 51% below area $60/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell!! Huge reduction on this fixer-upper opportunity in Rayburn Country near Lake Sam Rayburn. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious layout with vaulted ceilings and sits on two lots totaling over half an acre. Features include an updated kitchen, new carpet in the bedrooms, and a patio ideal for outdoor gatherings. Great potential for investors or buyers looking to add value in a desirable lake-area community.

Key facts

• Two lots
• New carpet
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW CARPET
• PATIO
• TWO LOTS
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• VAULTED CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-387 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (36.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (32.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.5% in Sam Rayburn — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#606 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Brookeland ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #445 of 1,141 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 419 active listings in the ZIP; 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.3% local appreciation)).
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $121k; list at $185k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,671 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.96%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $381,259
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -51.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
220 Broadmoor	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,014 (-2%)	9mo	$321,000	$159	64
270 Lakeshore	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,105 (+2%)	9mo	$569,000	$270	60
416 Broadmoor Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,963 (-5%)	6mo	$500,000	$255	59
252 Parkside Loop	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,927 (-6%)	4mo	$189,900	$99	55
182 Lakeshore Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,784 (-13%)	12mo	$429,000	$240	44
145 Northview Cir	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,948 (-5%)	19mo	$494,900	$254	39
489 Lakeshore Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	2,340 (+14%)	16mo	$629,000	$269	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-18,581
• Equity at exit: $65,838

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,723
• Equity at exit: $89,605

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75931

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,119/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,731

Max offer price $116,671

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 115 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 114 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 113 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 107 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 101 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-04-26
    price $185,000 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Priced to sell!! Huge reduction on this fixer-upper opportunity in Rayburn Country near Lake Sam Rayburn. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious layout with vaulted ceilings and sits on two lots totaling over half an acre. Features include an updated kitchen, new carpet in the bedrooms, and a patio ideal for outdoor gatherings. Great potential for investors or buyers looking to add value in a desirable lake-area community.

16. 2026-04-02
    price $195,900 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Priced to sell!! Huge reduction on this fixer-upper opportunity in Rayburn Country near Lake Sam Rayburn. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious layout with vaulted ceilings and sits on two lots totaling over half an acre. Features include an updated kitchen, new carpet in the bedrooms, and a patio ideal for outdoor gatherings. Great potential for investors or buyers looking to add value in a desirable lake-area community.

17. 2026-03-12
    price $209,900 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Priced to sell!! Huge reduction on this fixer-upper opportunity in Rayburn Country near Lake Sam Rayburn. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious layout with vaulted ceilings and sits on two lots totaling over half an acre. Features include an updated kitchen, new carpet in the bedrooms, and a patio ideal for outdoor gatherings. Great potential for investors or buyers looking to add value in a desirable lake-area community.

18. 2026-01-26
    listed $215,000 Active 433-char remark

    Show marketing remark (433 chars)

    Priced to sell!! Huge reduction on this fixer-upper opportunity in Rayburn Country near Lake Sam Rayburn. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a spacious layout with vaulted ceilings and sits on two lots totaling over half an acre. Features include an updated kitchen, new carpet in the bedrooms, and a patio ideal for outdoor gatherings. Great potential for investors or buyers looking to add value in a desirable lake-area community.

19. 2020-01-17
    soldstatus 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Check out this wonderful 3 bedrooms 2 bath home in Rayburn Country, perfect for fisherman. This home features a beautiful updated kitchen, vaulted ceilings, and new carpet in the bedrooms. This home sits on 2 lots, and has a beautiful patio great for entertaining. Call today to see this beautiful home

20. 2019-12-17
    listed $173,000 302-char remark

    Show marketing remark (302 chars)

    Check out this wonderful 3 bedrooms 2 bath home in Rayburn Country, perfect for fisherman. This home features a beautiful updated kitchen, vaulted ceilings, and new carpet in the bedrooms. This home sits on 2 lots, and has a beautiful patio great for entertaining. Call today to see this beautiful home

21. 2014-05-13
    soldstatus $121,180

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,119 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$266/yr (+$22/mo · 8.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$3,119
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,191
• − Management: −$1,191
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$8,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,920
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brookeland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811520
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,145
• Composite: 42.74/100
• National rank: #6781
• State rank: #445 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Sam Rayburn

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #606
• US rank: #11495

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sam Rayburn, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,209

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.28%
• Current HPI: 231.9835
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+52.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $185,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $195,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $209,900 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $215,000 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2020-01-17 Sold (MLS) — BBOR
• 2019-12-17 Listed $173,000 BBOR
• 2014-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $121,180 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,119 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.