13323 Ellison Trce

Sale Creek, TN 37308

$195,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Pending · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,251/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$263
• Net cashflow: $-170/mo
• Annual: $-2,036/yr
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.73%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (35.8% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (35.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#211 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Hamilton County (urban): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #42 of 139 in TN (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Snow Hill Elementary (math 48% / reading 39%, grade F, #184 of 952 statewide, top 19%, 657 students, 0% FRL); Hunter Middle School (math 40% / reading 35%, grade F, #54 of 333 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 0% FRL); Central High School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #183 of 332 statewide, top 59%, 749 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 52% district-wide (52 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 2,133 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (405 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.2% in Sale Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.