3017 Grey Moss Dr

St. Cloud, FL 34773

$419,990D-

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · Built 2025 · Land · Pending · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,097/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax + insurance: −$424
• HOA: −$44
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-224/mo
• Annual: $-2,683/yr
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $117,597

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $420k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (26.3% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $310k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $944 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,097/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 47% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.