3017 Grey Moss Dr · St. Cloud, FL 34773

$419,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,447 sqft · Land · 80 Days on market

Built 2025 4,792 sqft lot $44/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The property is located at 3017 Grey Moss Drive SAINT CLOUD FL 34773 priced at 419990, the square foot and stories are 2447, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 5 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Ample cabinetry
• Linen closet

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• CENTER ISLAND
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• LINEN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• Financial info: Other annual assessment listed
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Association Solutions of Central Florida; HOA required; approximately $44.33/month ($133 quarterly); Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, playground, pool; Community features: clubhouse, deed restrictions, fitness center, playground, pool, sidewalks, street lights; Pets: cats and dogs allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (19x19)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Underground utilities; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Under construction (projected completion June 2026); Faces south
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction by D.R. Horton (model: Robie)
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Sprinkler (metered)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid-surface counters; Stone counters; Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-224 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $380k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (26.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $310k (26.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in St. Cloud — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,097/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($81k/yr) (locally 47% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $944 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $309,679 (26.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.47% appreciation · 1.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-39,473
• Equity at exit: $112,245

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-23,013
• Equity at exit: $127,402

Cash invested: $117,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34773

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,097 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,983/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$44
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$650
• Net cashflow: $-224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,380

Max offer price $380,493

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,998
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7110 Sandhill Crane Way Unit 1 St Cloud, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,722	$1.49	24d	1	0.48mi
6847 Botanic Blvd Harmony, FL	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,600	$1.13	24d	1	1.07mi
6833 Cranes Roost Rd Harmony, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,350	$1.28	24d	1	1.20mi
2937 Hooded Crane Cv Harmony, FL	4.0	3.5	2841	$2,699	$0.95	24d	1	1.38mi
6792 Huntleigh Hammock Rd Harmony, FL	4.0	2.5	2268	$2,900	$1.28	17d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $44 · $528/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $419,990 Pending 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $419,990 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $419,990 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $419,990 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $419,990 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $419,990 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-05-01
   price $419,990 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   The property is located at 3017 Grey Moss Drive SAINT CLOUD FL 34773 priced at 419990, the square foot and stories are 2447, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 5 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

8. 2026-04-30
   price $419,990
9. 2026-03-17
   listed $427,384 Active
10. 2026-03-04
    listed $427,384 Active 241-char remark

    Show marketing remark (241 chars)

    The property is located at 3017 Grey Moss Drive SAINT CLOUD FL 34773 priced at 419990, the square foot and stories are 2447, 2.The number of bath is 3, halfbath is 0 there are 5 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,983 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,486 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$503/yr (+$42/mo · 16.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,526
• − Property taxes: −$2,983
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,973
• − Management: −$2,973
• − HOA: −$528
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$10,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,433
• After-tax cash flow: $-250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,816
• Household income: $80,524
• Rent vs Own: 10.2% rent · 89.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 47.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.47%
• Current HPI: 279.5662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.79%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $419,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $419,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-17 Listed $427,384 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $427,384 Zillow