5 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,836 sqft ·
Built 1890
· Townhouse
· Active
· 22 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,685/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$519
Tax + insurance
−$216
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$354
Net cashflow
$596/mo
Annual
$7,158/yr
Cap rate
13.52%
Cash-on-cash
25.82%
DSCR
2.15
1% rule
1.70%
Cash to close
$27,720
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $99k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#427 in PA, #3,987 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F, employment F.
York City SD (urban): math 4% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #534 of 539 in PA (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 213 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).
Current owner paid $54k; list at $99k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 5.0% in York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SSCCSED1ZSJ4CP
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29