1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
448 sqft ·
Built 1976
· Condo
· Active
· 150 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$932/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$288
Tax + insurance
−$92
HOA
−$75
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$196
Net cashflow
$282/mo
Annual
$3,378/yr
Cap rate
12.44%
Cash-on-cash
21.94%
DSCR
1.98
1% rule
1.70%
Cash to close
$15,400
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $55k. Condition is rated good.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($932 rent vs $55k).
It's been on market 150 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#825 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D-, commute F.
Coldspring-Oakhurst CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #732 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Street El (449 students, 70% FRL); Lincoln J H (math 14% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 347 students, 58% FRL); Coldspring-Oakhurst H S (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 496 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 719 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.4% vs local median 3.0% in Huntsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 150 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
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· Data 3 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29