428 E Cottage Ave

West Carrollton, OH 45449

$129,900C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,133 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 20 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,344/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax + insurance: −$349
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $31/mo
• Annual: $377/yr
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $36,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($377/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#712 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• West Carrollton City (suburban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #540 of 656 in OH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Carrollton Early Childhood Center (656 students, 45% FRL); West Carrollton Middle School (math 27% / reading 43%, grade F, #546 of 654 statewide, top 83%, 508 students, 62% FRL); West Carrollton High School (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #564 of 781 statewide, top 74%, 951 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $130k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in West Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.