428 E Cottage Ave · West Carrollton, OH 45449

$129,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,133 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1959 8,281 sqft lot Est $190k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick ranch located in a quiet neighborhood in the heart of West Carrollton offers solid bones and tons of potential for the right buyer. Home features a spacious living room with fireplace, dining room area and an eat-in kitchen. Featuring an unfinished basement that’s ready for your finishing ideas, a nice backyard with a covered patio, and plenty of room to create your dream outdoor space and entertaining area. Home includes a one-car-attached garage plus a carport for extra parking convenience. The home needs some TLC and updates but offers great potential for sweat equity — perfect for investors, renovators, or buyers look

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Covered patio
• Brick ranch

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• COVERED PATIO
• EXTRA PARKING CONVENIENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($377/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in West Carrollton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#712 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• West Carrollton City (suburban): math 34% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #540 of 656 in OH (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Carrollton Early Childhood Center (656 students, 45% FRL); West Carrollton Middle School (math 27% / reading 43%, grade F, #546 of 654 statewide, top 83%, 508 students, 62% FRL); West Carrollton High School (math 17% / reading 57%, grade F, #564 of 781 statewide, top 74%, 951 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $898 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $82k; list at $130k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $127,951 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,344
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
434 E Cottage Ave	0.01mi	3/2.0	1,133 (0%)	4mo	$180,000	$159	94
410 Cedar St	0.09mi	3/1.0	1,133 (0%)	8mo	$189,900	$168	87
517 Richie Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,133 (0%)	10mo	$181,000	$160	85
234 William St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,056 (-7%)	8mo	$175,000	$166	70
426 Catherine Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,278 (+13%)	6mo	$182,000	$142	65
321 Windsor Ct	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,055 (-7%)	4mo	$180,000	$171	63
131 Savoy Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,033 (-9%)	9mo	$193,000	$187	57
121 E Circle Dr	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,162 (+3%)	8mo	$117,500	$101	56
509 Windsor Ave	0.58mi	3/1.0	975 (-14%)	1mo	$175,000	$179	47
404 Savoy Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0	975 (-14%)	9mo	$195,000	$200	44
102 Allen Pl	0.68mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,015 (-10%)	1mo	$120,000	$118	43
417 Windsor Ave	0.53mi	3/1.0	975 (-14%)	10mo	$183,000	$188	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-18,945
• Equity at exit: $19,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-13,504
• Equity at exit: $11,231

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45449

• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,543/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,305

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $105	-5% $68	+0% $31	+5% $-5	+10% $-42
Rent	-10% $-75	-5% $-22	+0% $31	+5% $85	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $97	-0.5pp $64	base $31	+0.5pp $-2	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 N Alex Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	960	$1,124	$1.17	4d	8	0.30mi
113 W Main St West Carrollton, OH	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,200	$1.07	4d	1	0.51mi
1130 Bishop Dr Unit 1130-C Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	850	$880	$1.04	4d	1	1.03mi
1644 Villa South Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,500	$1.50	45d	1	1.19mi
1735 Mars Hill Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,162	$1.20	4d	4	1.25mi
1308 Camp Hill Way Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	4d	11	1.45mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-11-03
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-14
   listed $129,900 Active
3. 2024-03-12
   historical
4. 2024-03-12
   status Pending
5. 2024-02-02
   historical Active/Pending
6. 2024-01-30
   listed $114,900 Active
7. 1993-07-21
   soldstatus $82,000
8. 1993-07-21
   soldstatus $82,000
9. 1993-07-12
   soldstatus $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,543 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,543 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$3,543
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,291
• − Management: −$1,291
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,697
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$407
• After-tax cash flow: $785/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Carrollton City
• NCES district ID: 3904505
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $42,209
• Composite: 33.71/100
• National rank: #5380
• State rank: #540 of 656 in OH

Livability — West Carrollton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #712
• US rank: #12835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Carrollton, OH
• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 19,066
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 19,066
• Household income: $63,800
• Rent vs Own: 40.9% rent · 59.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 745.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.64%
• Current HPI: 248.1785
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+58.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-03 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $129,900 Dayton MLS
• 2024-03-12 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2024-03-12 Pending — Dayton MLS
• 2024-02-02 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2024-01-30 Listed $114,900 Dayton MLS
• 1993-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1993-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records
• 1993-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,543 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.