3150 Paradox Cir #305

Kissimmee, FL 34746

$280,000D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,126 sqft · Built 2020 · Condo · Active · 201 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,611/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$574
• HOA: −$879
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-859/mo
• Annual: $-10,305/yr
• Cap rate: 2.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.14%
• DSCR: 0.42
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-859 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (54.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (6.7% below list).
• It's been on market 201 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (54.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#181 in FL, #2,841 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, employment D-.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Flora Ridge Elementary School (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,656 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,043 students, 50% FRL); Kissimmee Middle School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,289 students, 59% FRL); Celebration High School (math 42% / reading 56%, grade D, #193 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,769 students, 48% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1881 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $237k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.6% in Kissimmee — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 201 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 54% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?