15 Werner Rd

Clifton Gardens, NY 12065

$545,000C-

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,540 sqft · Built 1972 · MultiFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,088/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,858
• Tax + insurance: −$937
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,068
• Net cashflow: $224/mo
• Annual: $2,693/yr
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.76%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $152,600

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath multifamily listed at $545k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $509k (6.6% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $509k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shenendehowa Central School District (suburban): math 72% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #98 of 590 in NY (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Shenendehowa High School (math 97% / reading 82%, grade A+, #265 of 1,100 statewide, top 26%, 3,036 students, 21% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 90% at this address vs 72% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Shenendehowa Central School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 265 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $450k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.3% in Clifton Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $5,088/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($114k/yr) (locally 1040% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.