16629 Allison Way #4 #4

Soulsbyville, CA 95370

$42,500D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1960 · Manufactured · Active · 70 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,940/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax + insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $1,239/mo
• Annual: $14,870/yr
• Cap rate: 41.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 124.96%
• DSCR: 6.56
• 1% rule: 4.57%
• Cash to close: $11,900

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $42k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $40k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $294 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#731 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Soulsbyville Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #272 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.