16629 Allison Way #4 #4 · Soulsbyville, CA 95370

$42,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1960

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This spacious double wide is in need of some TLC. 2 Bedrooms, 2 bath built in 1974. Park is all age. Family room with free-standing wood stove. Large covered porch/deck. Back yard has room for your pets. Text or call me to schedule your appointment, today. All buyers must be approved for park residence before submitting an offer.

Key facts

• Large covered porch
• Double wide
• Furnace

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE
• FURNACE
• FREE-STANDING WOOD STOVE
• LARGE COVERED PORCH
• YARD SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Pets allowed (cats and dogs; restrictions and approval may apply); Community laundry; Pet restrictions apply

Exterior

• Parking: 3 covered spaces; 3-car garage spaces; Carport
• Utilities: Water and sewer not specified; Power not specified
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Double wide; Single-story (entry at street level); Entry faces unspecified direction
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Porch; Awnings; Shed(s); Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range / cooktop; Built-in oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane heating; Wood stove; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Family room; Free-standing wood-burning fireplace; Stall shower; Tub
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#731 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Soulsbyville Elementary (town): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #272 of 517 in CA (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $294 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,950 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 124.96%
• DSCR: 6.56
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.06×
• Total profit: $72,064
• Equity at exit: $6,337

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 14.82×
• Total profit: $164,496
• Equity at exit: $3,675

Cash invested: $11,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,940 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$53 /mo · $638/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $1,239

Break-even live

Break-even rent $372

Max offer price $42,500

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,625
• Closing costs: $1,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20381 Sherry Ct Unit A Soulsbyville, CA	3.0	2.0	1467	$2,195	$1.50	23d	1	1.00mi
19130 Beauchamp Dr Sonora, CA	3.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	43d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $42,500 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,500 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $42,500 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $42,500 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $42,500 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $42,500 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $42,500 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $42,500 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $42,500 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $42,500 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $42,500 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $42,500 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $42,500 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $42,500 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $42,500 Active 53 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $42,500 Active 52 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $42,500 Active 51 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $42,500 Active 50 DOM
19. 2026-04-10
    listed $42,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥96°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,381
• − Property taxes: −$638
• − Insurance: −$212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,863
• − Management: −$1,863
• − Depreciation: −$1,236
• Taxable income: $15,091
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,622
• After-tax cash flow: $11,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Soulsbyville Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0637320
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,518
• Composite: 30.5/100
• National rank: #6217
• State rank: #272 of 517 in CA

Livability — Soulsbyville

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #731
• US rank: #21555

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Soulsbyville, CA
• City population: 1,825
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $42,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $64 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.