212 Valencia Dr

Fairfield, CA 94533

$249,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built 2004 · Manufactured · Active · 231 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,924/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $831/mo
• Annual: $9,976/yr
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.31%
• DSCR: 1.64
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $831 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#314 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Fairfield-Suisun Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #238 of 517 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.0% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.