212 Valencia Dr · Fairfield, CA 94533

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Manufactured public records · 231 Days on market

Built 2004 $166/sqft · 14% above area Est $219k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.3/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2004 Spacious Elegant 1500 Sq. Ft. Double Wide. New Furniture's Included! In One of Fairfield's Most Desirable Mobile Home Parks. 3 Bedrooms & 2 Full Baths. Vaulted Ceilings. Laminate Wood Flooring Throughout. Lots of Kitchen Cabinetry. Large Walk-In Pantry Closet with Lighting. Portable Kitchen Island. Kitchen Skylight. Matching Kitchen Appliances, Microwave Over Free Standing Gas Range. Dishwasher & Dual Porcelain Kitchen Sink Under Kitchen Window. Kitchen Counters with Tile Trim & Tiled Back Splash. Exquisite Master Bedroom with Unique Lighted Bedroom Set Included. Master Bath with Shower Over Tub, Tiled Shower Enclosure & 2 Extra Large Walk‐In Closets with Lighting. Hall Bath with Walk-In Shower & Sitting Area, Single Sink with Tiled Trim & Tiled Back Splash. Central Heat & Air Conditioning. Ceiling Fans. Enclosed Sun Room with Separate Street Entrance Door, Screened with Lots of Windows. Large Laundry Room with Washing Machine & Dryer. Dual Pane Windows Throughout. Composition Roof. Fiber Cement Board Siding. 2 Car Covered Carport. Paved Yard Low Maintenance Landscaping. Large Vinyl Shed with Windows. No Age Restrictions. Community: Swimming Pool, Spa, Exercise Room, Recreation Hall, Basketball Court, Barbecue Pits, Horse Shoe Pit, Library & Billiards.

Key facts

• Kitchen skylight
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2004

Tags

• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY CLOSET
• KITCHEN SKYLIGHT
• MATCHING KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• EXQUISITE MASTER BEDROOM
• MASTER BATH WITH SHOWER
• HALL BATH WITH WALK-IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $831 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $219k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.0% in Fairfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#314 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Fairfield-Suisun Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #238 of 517 in CA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 264 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 231 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 231 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.31%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,717
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: 13.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 Barcelona Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+4%)	7mo	$232,000	$149	80
137 Valencia	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	2mo	$159,000	$118	74
126 Chevy Chase Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,550 (+3%)	9mo	$225,000	$145	70
190 Granada Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-10%)	17mo	$40,000	$30	65
41 Bel Air Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	13mo	$272,000	$189	65
131 Zaragoza Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-11%)	16mo	$213,000	$159	64
150 Segovia Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+11%)	11mo	$270,000	$162	61
120 Century Ct Ct	0.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,368 (-9%)	4mo	$225,000	$164	60
49 Bel Air Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,594 (+6%)	16mo	$190,000	$119	57
131 Chevy Chase Ct	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-10%)	9mo	$222,000	$165	55
144 Northridge Ct	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,640 (+9%)	15mo	$239,000	$146	52
151 - 225 Northridge Ct	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+12%)	15mo	$185,000	$110	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $4,343
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $39,934
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94533

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,924 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $832/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$614
• Net cashflow: $831

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,872

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1648 Little Rock Cir Suisun City, CA	3.0	3.0	1839	$3,300	$1.79	44d	1	0.71mi
1648 Little Rock Cir Suisun City, CA	3.0	3.0	1839	$3,300	$1.79	21d	1	0.71mi
1431 Catlin Ct Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,750	$1.62	44d	1	0.71mi
745 Monte Carlo Dr Suisun City, CA	4.0	3.0	1775	$3,400	$1.92	14d	1	1.02mi
1400 Humphrey Dr Suisun City, CA	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$2,425	$2.26	3d	4	1.13mi
1332 Renewal Ln Fairfield, CA	4.0	3.0	2055	$3,850	$1.87	14d	1	1.14mi
1335 Phillip Way Suisun City, CA	3.0	2.5	1606	$3,000	$1.87	14d	1	1.15mi
1930 Grande Cir #77 Fairfield, CA	2.0	2.0	1095	$1,750	$1.60	44d	1	1.17mi
1990 Grande Cir Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	895	$2,135	$2.39	3d	15	1.18mi
1970 Grande Cir #19 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1095	$2,200	$2.01	23d	1	1.20mi
1284 Warmth Ct Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.5	2057	$3,500	$1.70	21d	1	1.22mi
1960 Grande Cir #42 Fairfield, CA	3.0	1.5	1176	$2,500	$2.13	44d	1	1.22mi
1930 Manor Pl Unit 1 Fairfield, CA	2.0	1.5	1100	$2,150	$1.95	21d	1	1.30mi
2776 Woodmont Dr Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,995	$1.90	44d	1	1.35mi
2916 Cascade Cir Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$2,850	$2.64	44d	1	1.36mi
1513 Casa Loma Way Suisun City, CA	3.0	2.0	1334	$3,500	$2.62	14d	1	1.36mi
1037 Mockingbird Ln Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.0	1476	$2,695	$1.83	44d	1	1.46mi
1104 Waxwing Dr Suisun City, CA	3.0	2.0	1279	$3,079	$2.41	44d	1	1.49mi
3034 Roadrunner Dr Fairfield, CA	3.0	2.5	2003	$3,000	$1.50	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 231 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 223 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 216 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 215 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    price $249,000 1313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1313 chars)

    2004 Spacious Elegant 1500 Sq. Ft. Double Wide. New Furniture's Included! In One of Fairfield's Most Desirable Mobile Home Parks. 3 Bedrooms & 2 Full Baths. Vaulted Ceilings. Laminate Wood Flooring Throughout. Lots of Kitchen Cabinetry. Large Walk-In Pantry Closet with Lighting. Portable Kitchen Island. Kitchen Skylight. Matching Kitchen Appliances, Microwave Over Free Standing Gas Range. Dishwasher & Dual Porcelain Kitchen Sink Under Kitchen Window. Kitchen Counters with Tile Trim & Tiled Back Splash. Exquisite Master Bedroom with Unique Lighted Bedroom Set Included. Master Bath with Shower Over Tub, Tiled Shower Enclosure & 2 Extra Large Walk‐In Closets with Lighting. Hall Bath with Walk-In Shower & Sitting Area, Single Sink with Tiled Trim & Tiled Back Splash. Central Heat & Air Conditioning. Ceiling Fans. Enclosed Sun Room with Separate Street Entrance Door, Screened with Lots of Windows. Large Laundry Room with Washing Machine & Dryer. Dual Pane Windows Throughout. Composition Roof. Fiber Cement Board Siding. 2 Car Covered Carport. Paved Yard Low Maintenance Landscaping. Large Vinyl Shed with Windows. No Age Restrictions. Community: Swimming Pool, Spa, Exercise Room, Recreation Hall, Basketball Court, Barbecue Pits, Horse Shoe Pit, Library & Billiards.

16. 2025-10-30
    listed $269,000 Active 1313-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1313 chars)

    2004 Spacious Elegant 1500 Sq. Ft. Double Wide. New Furniture's Included! In One of Fairfield's Most Desirable Mobile Home Parks. 3 Bedrooms & 2 Full Baths. Vaulted Ceilings. Laminate Wood Flooring Throughout. Lots of Kitchen Cabinetry. Large Walk-In Pantry Closet with Lighting. Portable Kitchen Island. Kitchen Skylight. Matching Kitchen Appliances, Microwave Over Free Standing Gas Range. Dishwasher & Dual Porcelain Kitchen Sink Under Kitchen Window. Kitchen Counters with Tile Trim & Tiled Back Splash. Exquisite Master Bedroom with Unique Lighted Bedroom Set Included. Master Bath with Shower Over Tub, Tiled Shower Enclosure & 2 Extra Large Walk‐In Closets with Lighting. Hall Bath with Walk-In Shower & Sitting Area, Single Sink with Tiled Trim & Tiled Back Splash. Central Heat & Air Conditioning. Ceiling Fans. Enclosed Sun Room with Separate Street Entrance Door, Screened with Lots of Windows. Large Laundry Room with Washing Machine & Dryer. Dual Pane Windows Throughout. Composition Roof. Fiber Cement Board Siding. 2 Car Covered Carport. Paved Yard Low Maintenance Landscaping. Large Vinyl Shed with Windows. No Age Restrictions. Community: Swimming Pool, Spa, Exercise Room, Recreation Hall, Basketball Court, Barbecue Pits, Horse Shoe Pit, Library & Billiards.

17. 2014-04-30
    historical Withdrawn - Cancel
18. 2014-04-28
    listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $832 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,892 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,061/yr (+$88/mo · 127.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$832
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,807
• − Management: −$2,807
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $6,209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,490
• After-tax cash flow: $8,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfield-Suisun Unified
• NCES district ID: 0613360
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $69,654
• Composite: 34.59/100
• National rank: #5157
• State rank: #238 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fairfield

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #10551

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield, CA
• County: Solano County · 433,239 people
• City population: 120,008
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• Population (ZIP): 78,805
• Household income: $87,384
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 3474.0

Population outlook (Solano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 478,685 people
• By 2030: 497,974 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 528,515 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 549,115 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 587,229 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 571,378 · +19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% White 23% Black 16% Two or more races 16% Asian 14% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 28% Tagalog/Filipino 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Solano

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.0) · D 60.0% · R 37.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.0 2020: D+30.3 2016: D+30.5 2012: D+28.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -258.88%
• Current HPI: 285.4365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.15%
• Metro: Vallejo, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+50.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $249,000 BAREIS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $269,000 BAREIS
• 2014-04-30 Delisted — BAREIS
• 2014-04-28 Listed $165,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $832 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.