5014 Binz Engleman Rd

Kirby, TX 78219

$170,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,101 sqft · Built 1973 · SingleFamily · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,590/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$427
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-752/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.58%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $47,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-752/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (6.5% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#761 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 66 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 7.7% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?