19648 Deer Park Ave

Shenandoah, LA 70817

$380,000D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,934 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 18 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,778/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax + insurance: −$414
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-213/mo
• Annual: $-2,553/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $106,400

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (26.9% below list).
• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $278k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#16 in LA, #3,778 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• East Baton Rouge Parish (urban): math 22% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #47 of 98 in LA (top 48%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shenandoah Elementary School (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #100 of 646 statewide, top 16%, 703 students, 58% FRL); Woodlawn Middle School (math 20% / reading 39%, grade F, #116 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 887 students, 69% FRL); Woodlawn High School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #133 of 265 statewide, top 51%, 1,527 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,252 units permitted in East Baton Rouge Parish in 2024 (440 in 5+ unit buildings).
• East Baton Rouge County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.3% in Shenandoah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.