Tyndall Plan

Madison, AL 35756

$199,850F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 389 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,805/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,901
• Tax + insurance: −$922
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $-2,397/mo
• Annual: $-28,769/yr
• Cap rate: 1.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.57%
• DSCR: 0.17
• 1% rule: 0.33%
• Cash to close: $154,912

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $200k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-29k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (9.7% below list).
• It's been on market 389 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#12 in AL, #3,280 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Limestone County (rural): math 21% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #52 of 129 in AL (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Creekside Elementary School (math 42% / reading 66%, grade C, #96 of 627 statewide, top 16%, 560 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 54% at this address vs 32% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Limestone County average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 966 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 494 units permitted in Limestone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Limestone County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 3.0% in Madison — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($130k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 389 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.