4490 Island Reef Dr

Wellington, FL 33449

$785,000B+

6 bd · 5.5 ba · 5,031 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,763/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,117
• Tax + insurance: −$2,186
• HOA: −$315
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,890
• Net cashflow: $4,255/mo
• Annual: $51,064/yr
• Cap rate: 12.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.23%
• DSCR: 2.03
• 1% rule: 1.75%
• Cash to close: $219,800

Investor read

• This is a 6-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $785k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($51k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $785k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $129 of equity ($5k loan paydown + $-5k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#294 in FL, #4,986 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $220k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.4% in Wellington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.