4490 Island Reef Dr · Wellington, FL 33449

$785,000

6 bd · 5.5 ba · 5,031 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2003 5,681 sqft lot $315/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 44% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

''Estates'' at the Isles!! Wrought iron entry doors, gorgeous spiral staircase, 24'' saturina marble downstairs, cherry wood floors upstairs, gourmet kitchen with granite tops. Third garage is converted to a bonus bedroom with full bath, perfect for a nanny or in-law.

Key facts

• 5,681 sq ft lot
• 10 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/5.5-bath single-family listed at $785k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($51k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $785k).
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.4% in Wellington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#294 in FL, #4,986 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 168 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $129 of equity ($5k loan paydown + $-5k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $220k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $785,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.23%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $224,435
• Equity at exit: $201,805

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $624,302
• Equity at exit: $222,595

Cash invested: $219,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33449

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 168
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,117
• Tax from tax record: −$1,858 /mo · $22,302/yr
• Insurance: −$327
• HOA: −$315
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,890
• Net cashflow: $4,255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,376

Max offer price $785,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4,700	-5% $4,478	+0% $4,255	+5% $4,033	+10% $3,811
Rent	-10% $3,168	-5% $3,712	+0% $4,255	+5% $4,799	+10% $5,343
Rate	-1.0pp $4,651	-0.5pp $4,455	base $4,255	+0.5pp $4,052	+1.0pp $3,845

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $196,250
• Closing costs: $23,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11695 Sunrise View Ln Wellington, FL	5.0	4.5	4616	$12,000	$2.60	19d	1	0.11mi
11615 Paradise Cove Ln Wellington, FL	5.0	4.0	4177	$12,000	$2.87	22d	1	0.15mi
11910 Osprey Point Cir Wellington, FL	5.0	4.0	4450	$17,000	$3.82	12d	1	0.23mi
11910 Osprey Point Cir Wellington, FL	5.0	4.0	4450	$17,000	$3.82	25d	1	0.23mi
4673 Island Reef Dr Wellington, FL	5.0	4.0	4177	$8,500	$2.03	25d	1	0.29mi
11836 Osprey Point Cir Wellington, FL	5.0	4.0	4293	$15,999	$3.73	6d	1	0.33mi
12442 Equine Ln Wellington, FL	6.0	4.5	4146	$20,000	$4.82	25d	1	0.88mi
12465 World Cup Ln Wellington, FL	5.0	4.5	3740	$10,000	$2.67	25d	1	1.00mi
10780 Anderson Ln Lake Worth, FL	7.0	4.5	4626	$20,000	$4.32	25d	1	1.30mi
10771 Versailles Blvd Wellington, FL	5.0	4.5	5031	$15,000	$2.98	5d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $315 · $3,780/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-01-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-21
   status Pending
3. 2025-06-21
   historical
4. 2025-06-20
   listed $785,000 Active
5. 2025-04-07
   historical
6. 2025-03-04
   price $1,285,000
7. 2025-02-24
   status Active
8. 2025-02-24
   price $1,250,000
9. 2024-10-03
   status Pending
10. 2024-10-03
    price $850,000
11. 2024-09-15
    status Active
12. 2024-09-02
    listed $1,380,000 Active
13. 2022-11-19
    soldstatus $1,375,000
14. 2022-05-16
    soldstatus $950,000
15. 2014-06-20
    soldstatus $682,000
16. 2014-06-17
    soldstatus $682,000 Closed 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    ''Estates'' at the Isles!! Wrought iron entry doors, gorgeous spiral staircase, 24'' saturina marble downstairs, cherry wood floors upstairs, gourmet kitchen with granite tops. Third garage is converted to a bonus bedroom with full bath, perfect for a nanny or in-law.

17. 2014-04-28
    historical Contingent 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    ''Estates'' at the Isles!! Wrought iron entry doors, gorgeous spiral staircase, 24'' saturina marble downstairs, cherry wood floors upstairs, gourmet kitchen with granite tops. Third garage is converted to a bonus bedroom with full bath, perfect for a nanny or in-law.

18. 2014-04-28
    price $729,000 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    ''Estates'' at the Isles!! Wrought iron entry doors, gorgeous spiral staircase, 24'' saturina marble downstairs, cherry wood floors upstairs, gourmet kitchen with granite tops. Third garage is converted to a bonus bedroom with full bath, perfect for a nanny or in-law.

19. 2014-03-03
    listed $749,900 Active 268-char remark

    Show marketing remark (268 chars)

    ''Estates'' at the Isles!! Wrought iron entry doors, gorgeous spiral staircase, 24'' saturina marble downstairs, cherry wood floors upstairs, gourmet kitchen with granite tops. Third garage is converted to a bonus bedroom with full bath, perfect for a nanny or in-law.

20. 2011-04-15
    historical
21. 2010-10-04
    listed $749,900
22. 2005-12-16
    soldstatus $1,100,000
23. 2005-12-14
    soldstatus $1,100,000
24. 2005-12-13
    historical
25. 2005-08-22
    historical
26. 2005-08-19
    listed $1,150,000
27. 2005-06-12
    listed $1,400,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $22,302 · $1,858/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $22,302 · $1,858/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $165,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$43,972
• − Property taxes: −$22,302
• − Insurance: −$3,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,212
• − Management: −$13,212
• − HOA: −$3,780
• − Depreciation: −$22,836
• Taxable income: $41,913
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10,059
• After-tax cash flow: $41,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Beach
• NCES district ID: 1201500
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,943
• Composite: 42.72/100
• National rank: #3160
• State rank: #34 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wellington

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #4986

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wellington, FL
• City population: 60,184
• Population (ZIP): 9,131

Population outlook (Palm Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,637,487 people
• By 2030: 1,743,255 · +6.5%
• By 2040: 1,948,712 · +19.0%
• By 2050: 2,132,979 · +30.3%
• By 2075: 2,530,027 · +54.5%
• By 2100: 2,706,979 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 4% Hispanic 3%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Palm Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 49.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.1pp toward R · 2008: 22.9pp · 2024: 0.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.8 2020: D+12.8 2016: D+15.3 2012: D+17.0 2008: D+22.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Current HPI: 271.0184
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-43.9% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Pending — MARMLS
• 2025-06-21 Pending — MARMLS
• 2025-06-21 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $785,000 MARMLS
• 2025-04-07 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-03-04 Price Changed $1,285,000 MARMLS
• 2025-02-24 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $1,250,000 MARMLS
• 2024-10-03 Pending — MARMLS
• 2024-10-03 Price Changed $850,000 MARMLS
• 2024-09-15 Relisted — MARMLS
• 2024-09-02 Listed $1,380,000 MARMLS
• 2022-11-19 Sold (Public Records) $1,375,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $950,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $682,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-17 Sold (MLS) $682,000 Beaches MLS
• 2014-04-28 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2014-04-28 Price Changed $729,000 Beaches MLS
• 2014-03-03 Listed $749,900 Beaches MLS
• 2011-04-15 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2010-10-04 Listed $749,900 Beaches MLS
• 2005-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $1,100,000 Public Records
• 2005-12-14 Sold (MLS) $1,100,000 Beaches MLS
• 2005-12-13 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2005-08-22 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2005-08-19 Listed $1,150,000 Beaches MLS
• 2005-06-12 Listed $1,400,000 Beaches MLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $22,302 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.