45 Akin Farm Rd

Estancia, NM 87016

$134,900C

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,073 sqft · Built 1990 · Other · Pending · 291 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,401/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $207/mo
• Annual: $2,486/yr
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.58%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $37,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $135k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• It's been on market 291 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#286 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Estancia Municipal Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #58 of 95 in NM (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP.
• Torrance County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 291 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — severely dated and worn
• Major: bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major: roof — visible wear
• Major: exterior siding — brick siding in need of repair
• Major: HVAC system — visible wear