45 Akin Farm Rd · Estancia, NM 87016

$134,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,073 sqft · Other · 291 Days on market

Built 1990 Poor condition 10 ac lot $65/sqft · 75% below area ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property located in Estancia is on 10 acres and features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The sunken living room has a fireplace. Two car attached garage. Appx. 1 hour to Albuquerque and 90 minutes to Santa Fe.

Key facts

• 10 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $135k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $207 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#286 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Estancia Municipal Schools (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #58 of 95 in NM (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Torrance County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 291 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 291 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.58%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $539,719
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: -75.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $33,439
• Equity at exit: $64,904

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $95,740
• Equity at exit: $103,461

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87016

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,401 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,634/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $207

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $245	+0% $207	+5% $169	+10% $131
Rent	-10% $96	-5% $152	+0% $207	+5% $263	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $275	-0.5pp $241	base $207	+0.5pp $172	+1.0pp $137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $134,900 Pending 291 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,900 Active 289 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 288 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 287 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   price $134,900 Active 286 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,000 Active 286 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $144,000 Active 282 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $144,000 Active 281 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $144,000 Active 280 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,000 Active 279 DOM
11. 2026-05-04
    price $144,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This property located in Estancia is on 10 acres and features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The sunken living room has a fireplace. Two car attached garage. Appx. 1 hour to Albuquerque and 90 minutes to Santa Fe.

12. 2026-04-29
    price $157,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This property located in Estancia is on 10 acres and features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The sunken living room has a fireplace. Two car attached garage. Appx. 1 hour to Albuquerque and 90 minutes to Santa Fe.

13. 2026-03-31
    price $164,900 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This property located in Estancia is on 10 acres and features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The sunken living room has a fireplace. Two car attached garage. Appx. 1 hour to Albuquerque and 90 minutes to Santa Fe.

14. 2026-02-26
    price $170,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This property located in Estancia is on 10 acres and features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The sunken living room has a fireplace. Two car attached garage. Appx. 1 hour to Albuquerque and 90 minutes to Santa Fe.

15. 2026-01-28
    price $184,900 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This property located in Estancia is on 10 acres and features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The sunken living room has a fireplace. Two car attached garage. Appx. 1 hour to Albuquerque and 90 minutes to Santa Fe.

16. 2026-01-06
    price $192,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This property located in Estancia is on 10 acres and features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The sunken living room has a fireplace. Two car attached garage. Appx. 1 hour to Albuquerque and 90 minutes to Santa Fe.

17. 2025-11-06
    price $209,000 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This property located in Estancia is on 10 acres and features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The sunken living room has a fireplace. Two car attached garage. Appx. 1 hour to Albuquerque and 90 minutes to Santa Fe.

18. 2025-10-05
    price $214,900 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This property located in Estancia is on 10 acres and features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The sunken living room has a fireplace. Two car attached garage. Appx. 1 hour to Albuquerque and 90 minutes to Santa Fe.

19. 2025-08-21
    listed $225,000 Active 212-char remark

    Show marketing remark (212 chars)

    This property located in Estancia is on 10 acres and features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. The sunken living room has a fireplace. Two car attached garage. Appx. 1 hour to Albuquerque and 90 minutes to Santa Fe.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,634 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,634 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,815
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,634
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,345
• − Management: −$1,345
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $335
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$80
• After-tax cash flow: $2,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations to bring it up to current standards. Significant repairs and updates are needed to improve its condition and increase its resale value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely dated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major roof — visible wear
• Major exterior siding — brick siding in need of repair
• Major HVAC system — visible wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers
• Resale new bathroom fixtures and flooring — modernizing the bathrooms would attract more buyers
• Resale new roof and exterior siding — a new roof and siding would significantly improve the home's curb appeal
• Resale HVAC system replacement — a new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Resale landscaping and curb appeal improvements — improving the landscaping and curb appeal would make the home more attractive to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · severely dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · dated and worn	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · brick siding in need of repair	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · visible wear	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers ↑
• Resale new bathroom fixtures and flooring — modernizing the bathrooms would attract more buyers ↑
• Resale new roof and exterior siding — a new roof and siding would significantly improve the home's curb appeal ↑
• Resale HVAC system replacement — a new HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Resale landscaping and curb appeal improvements — improving the landscaping and curb appeal would make the home more attractive to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Estancia Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500930
• Math proficiency: 15% —
• Reading proficiency: 30% —
• Median HH income: $34,557
• Composite: 21.62/100
• National rank: #13611
• State rank: #58 of 95 in NM

Livability — Estancia

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #25736

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,897

Population outlook (Torrance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,807 people
• By 2030: 12,946 · -6.2%
• By 2040: 11,214 · -18.8%
• By 2050: 9,802 · -29.0%
• By 2075: 7,634 · -44.7%
• By 2100: 5,637 · -59.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 8% German 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Torrance

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.1) · D 29.9% · R 68.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -38.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.1 2020: R+33.4 2016: R+30.8 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.55%
• Current HPI: 106.6014
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-36.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $144,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $157,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $164,900 Southwest MLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $170,000 Southwest MLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $184,900 Southwest MLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $192,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $209,000 Southwest MLS
• 2025-10-05 Price Changed $214,900 Southwest MLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $225,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,634 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.