10527 Cobbler Pl

Waldorf, MD 20695

$432,690F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,117 sqft · Built 2025 · Townhouse · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,383/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,269
• Tax + insurance: −$721
• HOA: −$84
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $-402/mo
• Annual: $-4,819/yr
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.98%
• DSCR: 0.82
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $121,153

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $433k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-402 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $375k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (21.8% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $338k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Gustavus Brown Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #699 of 860 statewide, top 84%, 413 students, 73% FRL); Milton M. Somers Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #97 of 225 statewide, top 46%, 666 students, 39% FRL); St. Charles High School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #148 of 222 statewide, top 67%, 1,569 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 28% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?