10527 Cobbler Pl · Waldorf, MD 20695

$432,690

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,117 sqft · Townhouse · 72 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 2,265 sqft lot Garage $204/sqft · at area comps Est $440k · at est. $84/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome HOME to the Arcadia End Unit in St. Charles – Highlands, White Plains! This spacious new construction townhome offers approx. 2,117 sq ft, 3 bedrooms, 2 full + 2 half baths, and a 1-car garage—designed for modern living and flexible space.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Granite countertops
• Owner's suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OVERSIZED CENTER ISLAND
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $433k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-402 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $375k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $338k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $338k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#141 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Charles County Public Schools (suburban): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #14 of 24 in MD (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Gustavus Brown Elementary (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #699 of 860 statewide, top 84%, 413 students, 73% FRL); Milton M. Somers Middle School (math 15% / reading 36%, grade F, #97 of 225 statewide, top 46%, 666 students, 39% FRL); St. Charles High School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #148 of 222 statewide, top 67%, 1,569 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 28% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 281 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,542 units permitted in Charles County in 2024 (516 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Charles County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($407k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $338,308 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.98%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $439,804
• List price: $432,690
• Delta: -1.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10528 Cobbler Pl	0.03mi	3/3.5	2,117 (0%)	1mo	$433,890	$205	96
5518 Aberdeen Pl	0.09mi	3/3.0	2,072 (-2%)	2mo	$398,990	$193	91
5507 Aberdeen Pl	0.10mi	3/3.0	1,880 (-11%)	0mo	$402,890	$214	76
5522 Aberdeen Pl	0.10mi	3/3.0	1,837 (-13%)	1mo	$399,990	$218	72
5524 Aberdeen Pl	0.10mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,862 (-12%)	0mo	$349,990	$188	70
5526 Aberdeen Pl	0.10mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,862 (-12%)	2mo	$349,990	$188	68
5616 Ludlow Pl	0.18mi	3/3.5	1,871 (-12%)	2mo	$379,990	$203	68
5567 Marksburg Pl	0.15mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,862 (-12%)	1mo	$382,490	$205	65
5568 Marksburg Pl	0.17mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,862 (-12%)	0mo	$381,990	$205	65
5557 Marksburg Pl Pl	0.14mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,829 (-14%)	0mo	$380,490	$208	64
5534 Marksburg Pl	0.12mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,829 (-14%)	1mo	$379,990	$208	64
5546 Marksburg Pl Pl	0.14mi	2/3.5 (-1)	1,829 (-14%)	1mo	$379,990	$208	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-95,589
• Equity at exit: $64,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-115,755
• Equity at exit: $37,411

Cash invested: $121,153 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 64 active · 48 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.9 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,990 ($209/sqft)
• Median days on market: 49 d
• This list price: 83% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -0.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 20695

• Home prices YoY: -5.3%
• Active inventory: 281
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,383 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,269
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$541 /mo · $6,490/yr
• Insurance: −$180
• HOA: −$84
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$710
• Net cashflow: $-402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,891

Max offer price $374,579

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-103	-5% $-252	+0% $-402	+5% $-551	+10% $-701
Rent	-10% $-669	-5% $-535	+0% $-402	+5% $-268	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-184	-0.5pp $-292	base $-402	+0.5pp $-514	+1.0pp $-628

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,172
• Closing costs: $12,981
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10626 Roundstone Ln White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2736	$3,800	$1.39	93d	1	0.09mi
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	62d	1	0.13mi
5527 Aberdeen Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	4.0	1880	$3,000	$1.60	48d	1	0.13mi
5616 Ludlow Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	1871	$3,050	$1.63	3d	1	0.15mi
10939 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,500	$1.60	73d	1	0.16mi
10933 Drummond Pl Unit 10933 White Plains, MD	3.0	3.0	2300	$3,500	$1.52	54d	1	0.16mi
10893 Drummond Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2192	$3,250	$1.48	71d	1	0.22mi
5692 Glencoe Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1942	$3,254	$1.67	3d	4	0.35mi
11180 Conway Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1765	$3,418	$1.94	0d	10	0.53mi
4152 Skipton Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2529	$3,300	$1.30	33d	1	0.60mi
4165 Brodie Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2544	$3,000	$1.18	66d	1	0.61mi
11472 Stockport Pl White Plains, MD	4.0	3.5	2418	$3,500	$1.45	93d	1	0.72mi
11177 Southport Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	1718	$2,950	$1.72	3d	1	0.73mi
5457 Spotswood Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	2.5	2180	$3,200	$1.47	23d	1	0.81mi
10605 Willetts Crossing Rd White Plains, MD	4.0	1.0	1514	$2,390	$1.58	93d	1	0.85mi
3908 Glacier Bay Pl White Plains, MD	4.0	2.5	2388	$3,200	$1.34	39d	1	0.90mi
5401 Phillis Wheatley Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2688	$3,500	$1.30	93d	1	0.90mi
11687 Emily Dickinson Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2496	$3,500	$1.40	12d	1	0.95mi
5754 Frederick Douglas Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2220	$3,500	$1.58	93d	1	1.17mi
5764 Frederick Douglas Pl White Plains, MD	4.0	2.5	2460	$3,500	$1.42	3d	1	1.19mi
5972 Kate Chopin Pl White Plains, MD	3.0	3.5	2627	$3,100	$1.18	43d	1	1.29mi
11703 Palm Desert Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,750	$1.54	8d	1	1.38mi
11696 Palm Desert Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1720	$2,900	$1.69	66d	1	1.40mi
5525 Peanuts Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	4.0	2160	$3,400	$1.57	93d	1	1.41mi
5427 Doubleday Ln Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	2160	$3,169	$1.47	0d	1	1.42mi
5435 Doubleday Ln Waldorf, MD	4.0	2.5	2646	$3,600	$1.36	64d	1	1.44mi
5435 Doubleday Ln Waldorf, MD	4.0	2.5	2646	$3,650	$1.38	67d	1	1.44mi
5065 Ottawa Park Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.0	2192	$2,800	$1.28	62d	1	1.44mi
11761 Nationals Ln Unit 11761 Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2160	$3,200	$1.48	62d	1	1.44mi
11761 Nationals Ln Unit 11761 Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	2160	$3,200	$1.48	73d	1	1.44mi
11789 Sunset Ridge Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,950	$1.60	46d	1	1.47mi
11777 Sunningdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1944	$2,800	$1.44	93d	1	1.47mi
11748 Sunningdale Pl Waldorf, MD	3.0	2.5	1860	$2,750	$1.48	73d	1	1.47mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation water rightsPets allowed with no pet restrictionsLand assessed value listed
• HOA & community: HOA fee $84 monthlyCommunity pool availableFront foot fee $1,345 annuallyGround rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerNo municipal trash service
• Home design: End of row townhouseFee simple ownershipProperty in excellent conditionConstruction by Lennar (construction not completed)
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exteriorAsphalt roofSlab foundationAbove-grade and below-grade structuresYear built estimated
• Exterior features: Community poolNo tidal waterOutside city limits

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (upper level)Two half bathrooms (one on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central A/C (electric)Electric hot water
• Interior features: Furnished32"+ wide doorsFully finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on upper floor

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-05
   days on market $432,690 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-08-04
   days on market $432,690 Active 71 DOM
3. 2026-08-03
   days on market $432,690 Active 70 DOM
4. 2026-07-31
   days on market $432,690 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-07-30
   days on market $432,690 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-07-28
   days on market $432,690 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-07-26
   days on market $432,690 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-07-24
   days on market $432,690 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-07-23
   days on market $432,690 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-07-22
    days on market $432,690 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-07-21
    days on market $432,690 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-07-20
    days on market $432,690 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-07-18
    days on market $432,690 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $432,690 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $432,690 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-07-15
    days on market $432,690 Active 51 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $432,690 Active 50 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $432,690 Active 49 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $432,690 Active 48 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $432,690 Active 47 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $432,690 Active 46 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $432,690 Active 45 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $432,690 Active 43 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $432,690 Active 42 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $432,690 Active 41 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $432,690 Active 40 DOM
27. 2026-07-03
    days on market $432,690 Active 39 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    days on market $432,690 Active 38 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $432,690 Active 37 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $432,690 Active 36 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $432,690 Active 35 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $432,690 Active 34 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $432,690 Active 33 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $432,690 Active 32 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $432,690 Active 30 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $432,690 Active 28 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $432,690 Active 27 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $432,690 Active 24 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $432,690 Active 23 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $432,690 Active 22 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $432,690 Active 21 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $432,690 Active 19 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $432,690 Active 15 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $432,690 Active 14 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $432,690 Active 13 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $432,690 Active 10 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $432,690 Active 9 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $432,690 Active 8 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $432,690 Active 7 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $432,690 Active 6 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,237
• − Property taxes: −$6,490
• − Insurance: −$2,163
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,248
• − Management: −$3,248
• − HOA: −$1,008
• − Depreciation: −$12,587
• Taxable loss: −$12,385
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,972
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,847/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction townhome in Waldorf, MD, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a spacious layout, modern finishes, and a well-maintained exterior, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can make the home feel new and attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Kitchen backsplash — A backsplash can add a modern touch and increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Smart home integration — Smart home features can attract tech-savvy renters and add value to the rental market. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Arthur Middleton Elementary School F MD #681/860 Nat'l #39,883/41,679 Middle Milton M. Somers Middle School F MD #97/225 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High St. Charles High School F MD #148/222 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Charles County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400270
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $90,389
• Composite: 22.54/100
• National rank: #8087
• State rank: #14 of 24 in MD

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Waldorf

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #141
• US rank: #6083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waldorf, MD
• County: Charles County · 176,616 people
• City population: 103,527
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 16,407
• Household income: $141,959
• Rent vs Own: 12.8% rent · 87.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

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Population outlook (Charles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,616 people
• By 2030: 186,471 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 206,472 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 224,883 · +27.3%
• By 2075: 272,101 · +54.1%
• By 2100: 303,564 · +71.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 61% White 23% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Charles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.7) · D 69.2% · R 28.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.2pp toward D · 2008: 25.5pp · 2024: 40.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.7 2020: D+40.9 2016: D+30.2 2012: D+31.3 2008: D+25.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.63%
• Current HPI: 226.972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation water rightsPets allowed with no pet restrictionsLand assessed value listed
• HOA & community: HOA fee $84 monthlyCommunity pool availableFront foot fee $1,345 annuallyGround rent paid annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached front-entry garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerNo municipal trash service
• Home design: End of row townhouseFee simple ownershipProperty in excellent conditionConstruction by Lennar (construction not completed)
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exteriorAsphalt roofSlab foundationAbove-grade and below-grade structuresYear built estimated
• Exterior features: Community poolNo tidal waterOutside city limits

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (upper level)Two half bathrooms (one on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central A/C (electric)Electric hot water
• Interior features: Furnished32"+ wide doorsFully finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on upper floor

Price history

-80.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-25 Listed $432,690 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $2,227,297 Public Records