811 Hereford Ave

Texico, NM 88135

$75,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1997 · Other · Active · 106 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $272/mo
• Annual: $3,260/yr
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.53%
• DSCR: 1.69
• 1% rule: 1.33%
• Cash to close: $21,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#19 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Texico Municipal Schools (rural): math 41% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 95 in NM (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 169 units permitted in Curry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Curry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.