811 Hereford Ave · Texico, NM 88135

$75,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Other · 106 Days on market

Built 1997 4,500 sqft lot ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This presents a significant opportunity to acquire a property within the esteemed Texico School District. This three-bedroom, two-bathroom residence is competitively priced and situated in one of New Mexico's most highly regarded school districts. We encourage you to capitalize on this exceptional offering. Please contact us today to discuss financing options and to arrange a private viewing.

Key facts

• 4,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 106 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $272 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#19 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Texico Municipal Schools (rural): math 41% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 95 in NM (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 169 units permitted in Curry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($519 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Curry County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.53%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.25×
• Total profit: $26,354
• Equity at exit: $33,723

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $69,599
• Equity at exit: $51,972

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88135

• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 8th St Unit D Farwell, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,000	$1.00	43d	1	1.03mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $75,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $75,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $85,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    This presents a significant opportunity to acquire a property within the esteemed Texico School District. This three-bedroom, two-bathroom residence is competitively priced and situated in one of New Mexico's most highly regarded school districts. We encourage you to capitalize on this exceptional offering. Please contact us today to discuss financing options and to arrange a private viewing.

18. 2026-04-15
    price $90,000 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    This presents a significant opportunity to acquire a property within the esteemed Texico School District. This three-bedroom, two-bathroom residence is competitively priced and situated in one of New Mexico's most highly regarded school districts. We encourage you to capitalize on this exceptional offering. Please contact us today to discuss financing options and to arrange a private viewing.

19. 2026-03-05
    listed $95,000 Active 395-char remark

    Show marketing remark (395 chars)

    This presents a significant opportunity to acquire a property within the esteemed Texico School District. This three-bedroom, two-bathroom residence is competitively priced and situated in one of New Mexico's most highly regarded school districts. We encourage you to capitalize on this exceptional offering. Please contact us today to discuss financing options and to arrange a private viewing.

20. 2017-10-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$960
• − Management: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $2,197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$527
• After-tax cash flow: $2,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Texico Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502580
• Math proficiency: 41% —
• Reading proficiency: 62% —
• Median HH income: $39,842
• Composite: 44.98/100
• National rank: #5864
• State rank: #5 of 95 in NM

Livability — Texico

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #7637

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texico, NM
• Population (ZIP): 1,393

Population outlook (Curry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,742 people
• By 2030: 47,759 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 45,444 · -6.8%
• By 2050: 42,403 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 33,878 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 22,414 · -54.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 14% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Curry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 27.8% · R 70.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: -34.1pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+40.6 2016: R+42.4 2012: R+38.6 2008: R+34.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $85,000 NMMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $90,000 NMMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $95,000 NMMLS
• 2017-10-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+14.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $34 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.