11 Kenneth Dr

Shrub Oak, NY 10579

$689,000F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,900 sqft · Built 1974 · SingleFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,788/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,613
• Tax + insurance: −$1,752
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,006
• Net cashflow: $-1,583/mo
• Annual: $-18,993/yr
• Cap rate: 3.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.43%
• DSCR: 0.58
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $192,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $689k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $409k (40.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $479k (30.5% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $409k (40.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $74k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $69k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#342 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Putnam Valley Central School District (suburban): math 73% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #91 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Putnam Valley Elementary School (math 87% / reading 82%, grade A+, #93 of 2,108 statewide, top 6%, 554 students, 19% FRL); Putnam Valley Middle School (math 57% / reading 65%, grade B+, #150 of 729 statewide, top 21%, 473 students, 17% FRL); Putnam Valley High School (math 92% / reading 24%, grade C, #879 of 1,100 statewide, top 80%, 503 students, 23% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 142 units permitted in Putnam County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Putnam County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $415k; list at $689k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$118k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.