1390 Green Valley Cir Unit 1101 and 1104

Naples, FL 34104

$440,000F

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 946 sqft · Built 1987 · Condo · Active · 122 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,777/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax + insurance: −$745
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-859/mo
• Annual: $-10,303/yr
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $123,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $440k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-859 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (34.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (36.9% below list).
• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $278k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 436 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $259k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $440k implies a 715% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,777/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1423% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?