1390 Green Valley Cir Unit 1101 and 1104 · Naples, FL 34104

$440,000

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 946 sqft · Condo public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1987

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS. .. .2 SINGLE DEEDED CONDO UNITS CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN. .. .. COMMUNITY POOL. .. .. LOW CONDO FEES. .. .GREAT FOR RENTAL OR AFFORDABLE LIVING. .. .. .. .

Key facts

• Community pool
• Low condo fees
• Community pool

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• LOW CONDO FEES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is 2 units (building contains 4 units); Possession at closing
• HOA & community: Community pool; Condo/Hotel, non-gated community

Exterior

• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Duplex residential income property; Built in 1987; Located in the Springwood community; Zero lot line; Paved road access
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Sliding windows; Stucco exterior; Shingle roof

Interior

• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Tile flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath condo listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-859 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $288k (34.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $278k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $278k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 436 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,777/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) (locally 1423% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $259k (37%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $440k implies a 715% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,726 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-134,071
• Equity at exit: $65,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -66.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.77×
• Total profit: $-218,413
• Equity at exit: $38,043

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34104

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 436
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,777 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,624/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $-859

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,864

Max offer price $288,332

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2155 Great Blue Dr Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$2,379	$2.66	14d	43	0.70mi
1895 Courtyard Way #103 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1046	$2,200	$2.10	21d	1	0.85mi
3350 Putney Ct Naples, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$3,784	$3.65	14d	26	1.19mi
3005 Gordon St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	967	$2,275	$2.35	14d	1	1.20mi
3005 Gordon St Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	967	$2,275	$2.35	23d	1	1.20mi
1950 Mayfair St Naples, FL	3.0	1.0–3.5	1514	$11,999	$7.92	14d	109	1.21mi
2648 Kings Lake Blvd Unit 6-201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1060	$2,200	$2.08	21d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $440,000 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $440,000 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $440,000 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,000 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $440,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $440,000 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $440,000 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $440,000 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $440,000 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $440,000 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $440,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $440,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $440,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $440,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-03-07
    price $440,000
16. 2026-03-01
    price $469,900
17. 2026-02-23
    price $649,900
18. 2026-02-16
    listed $699,000 Active
19. 2025-10-24
    historical $1,650
20. 2025-10-08
    listed $1,650
21. 2003-06-04
    soldstatus $54,000
22. 2001-01-31
    soldstatus $57,100
23. 1987-08-01
    soldstatus $43,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,624 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,652 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,028/yr (+$169/mo · 124.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,327
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$1,624
• − Insurance: −$7,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,666
• − Management: −$2,666
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$18,394
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,415
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,888/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Naples

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #126
• US rank: #1903

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute D+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 344,941
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,408
• Household income: $71,686
• Rent vs Own: 31.7% rent · 68.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1423.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 19% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -252.48%
• Current HPI: 259.3498
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.10%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+923.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $440,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-01 Price Changed $469,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $649,900 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $699,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-24 Rental Removed $1,650 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed for Rent $1,650 NAPLESMLS
• 2003-06-04 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $57,100 Public Records
• 1987-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,624 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.