1306 Little Heron Pl

Green Cove Springs, FL 32043

$399,850F

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,363 sqft · Built 2026 · Land · Pending · 88 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,525/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$8
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-544/mo
• Annual: $-6,524/yr
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.83%
• DSCR: 0.74
• 1% rule: 0.63%
• Cash to close: $111,958

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $400k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-544 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (36.9% below list).
• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $252k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in FL, #3,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles E. Bennett Elementary School (math 41% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 624 students, 100% FRL); Green Cove Springs Junior High School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 799 students, 38% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 891 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.