1306 Little Heron Pl · Green Cove Springs, FL 32043

$399,850

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,363 sqft · Land · 88 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

READY NOW! The Robie floor plan offers spacious, flexible living with 2,373 square feet of beautifully designed space. This two-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage--perfect for growing families or multigenerational households needing room to spread out. Natural light fills the home thanks to numerous well-placed windows, creating a bright and inviting atmosphere throughout. The heart of the home showcases an open-concept gathering room, dining area, and kitchen seamlessly connected for modern living and effortless entertaining. The large quartz island provides abundant counter space for meal prep, casual dining, or hosting friends and family. With generous cabine

Key facts

• New home community
• Modern floor plans
• Top-rated schools

Tags

• NEW HOME COMMUNITY
• MODERN FLOOR PLANS
• SMART FEATURES
• TOP-RATED SCHOOLS
• FLEMING ISLAND SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with amenities including dog park, fitness center, and playground; Association fee $100 annually; CDD fee applies

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential use
• Construction: Fiber cement and frame construction; Other construction materials; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Smoke detectors; Community pool (not private)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Entrance foyer; Kitchen island; Open floorplan; Pantry; Smart home features; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $400k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-544 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $304k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#245 in FL, #3,868 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Charles E. Bennett Elementary School (math 41% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 624 students, 100% FRL); Green Cove Springs Junior High School (math 63% / reading 60%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 799 students, 38% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 60% FRL vs 35% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 891 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $252,488 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.83%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-105,813
• Equity at exit: $59,619

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.44×
• Total profit: $-161,677
• Equity at exit: $34,572

Cash invested: $111,958 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,202/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $-544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,213

Max offer price $303,808

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-317	-5% $-430	+0% $-544	+5% $-657	+10% $-770
Rent	-10% $-743	-5% $-643	+0% $-544	+5% $-444	+10% $-344
Rate	-1.0pp $-342	-0.5pp $-442	base $-544	+0.5pp $-647	+1.0pp $-753

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,962
• Closing costs: $11,996
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $399,850
3. 2026-04-09
   price $399,940
4. 2026-04-01
   price $404,940
5. 2026-02-05
   listed $402,440 Active
6. 2025-10-10
   soldstatus $1,905,000
7. 2025-08-22
   soldstatus $11,212,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,319 · $277/mo
• Expected delta: +$116/yr (+$10/mo · 3.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,398
• − Property taxes: −$3,202
• − Insurance: −$1,999
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$11,632
• Taxable loss: −$13,877
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,330
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It is move-in ready and has the potential to be further enhanced with a fresh paint job and landscaping improvements to boost its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances the curb appeal and interior aesthetics, making the home more attractive to potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Green Cove Springs

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #3868

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Cove Springs, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 34,562
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-96.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $399,850 realMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $399,940 realMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $404,940 realMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $402,440 realMLS
• 2025-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $1,905,000 Public Records
• 2025-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $11,212,500 Public Records