3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
960 sqft ·
Built 1895
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 40 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,294/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,495
Tax + insurance
−$436
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$482
Net cashflow
$-119/mo
Annual
$-1,423/yr
Cap rate
5.79%
Cash-on-cash
-1.78%
DSCR
0.92
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$79,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (7.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (19.5% below list).
It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $229k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in MD, #3,041 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime D+, cost of living D+.
Frederick County Public Schools (other): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #4 of 24 in MD (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Parkway Elementary (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #201 of 860 statewide, top 25%, 258 students, 45% FRL); West Frederick Middle (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #118 of 225 statewide, top 54%, 776 students, 61% FRL); Frederick High (math 42% / reading 64%, grade C-, #95 of 222 statewide, top 43%, 1,829 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 20% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents flat; 278 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,562 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (374 in 5+ unit buildings).
Frederick County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
5 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $49k; list at $285k implies a 482% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Frederick — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
CashFlowRE · CFR-SW33W846D2TSRM
· Data 4 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29