15 Pearl St

Livingston Manor, NY 12758

$294,500A

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,496 sqft · Built 1930 · MultiFamily · Active · 864 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,968/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,544
• Tax + insurance: −$1,017
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,043
• Net cashflow: $1,363/mo
• Annual: $16,356/yr
• Cap rate: 13.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.04%
• DSCR: 2.16
• 1% rule: 1.69%
• Cash to close: $82,460

Investor read

• This is a 1×2bd/1ba + 2×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $294k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive. Per door: $454/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $294k).
• It's been on market 864 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $259k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,173 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Manor Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #456 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $294k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $82k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.0% in Livingston Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 864 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?