15 Pearl St · Livingston Manor, NY 12758

$294,500

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,496 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 864 Days on market

Built 1930 8,455 sqft lot $118/sqft · 14% below area Est $343k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Three family money maker located in the highly desired up-and-coming Livingston Manor area with an additional lot for sale as well to the left of the house. Spacious two-bedroom apartment on the first floor, two additional one-bedroom apartments, and a detached two-car garage. Lots of great restaurants and shops close by. Don't wait, or you will miss out on this opportunity. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

Key facts

• 8,455 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1930

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1×2bd/1ba + 2×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive. Per door: $454/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $294k).
• Recommended offer: $259k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.0% in Livingston Manor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,173 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Manor Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #456 of 755 in NY (top 60%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 739 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $82k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 864 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $150k; list at $294k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 864 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.04%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $342,549
• List price: $294,500
• Delta: -14.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $247,602
• Equity at exit: $265,309

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.02×
• Total profit: $661,672
• Equity at exit: $572,149

Cash invested: $82,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12758

• Home prices YoY: 15.4%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,968 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,544
• Tax from tax record: −$468 /mo · $5,617/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,043
• Net cashflow: $1,363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,243

Max offer price $294,500

Occupancy floor 68%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	1	$1,656
▸ 2× units	1	1	$3,312
Total (3 units)			$4,968

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,625
• Closing costs: $8,835
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,500 Active 864 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,500 Active 863 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,500 Active 862 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,500 Active 861 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,500 Active 859 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $294,500 Active 858 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,500 Active 855 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,500 Active 854 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,500 Active 853 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $294,500 Active 852 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,500 Active 849 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,500 Active 848 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,500 Active 847 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,500 Active 846 DOM
15. 2025-03-31
    status Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Three family money maker located in the highly desired up-and-coming Livingston Manor area with an additional lot for sale as well to the left of the house. Spacious two-bedroom apartment on the first floor, two additional one-bedroom apartments, and a detached two-car garage. Lots of great restaurants and shops close by. Don't wait, or you will miss out on this opportunity. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

16. 2025-03-16
    historical 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Three family money maker located in the highly desired up-and-coming Livingston Manor area with an additional lot for sale as well to the left of the house. Spacious two-bedroom apartment on the first floor, two additional one-bedroom apartments, and a detached two-car garage. Lots of great restaurants and shops close by. Don't wait, or you will miss out on this opportunity. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

17. 2024-08-20
    status Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Three family money maker located in the highly desired up-and-coming Livingston Manor area with an additional lot for sale as well to the left of the house. Spacious two-bedroom apartment on the first floor, two additional one-bedroom apartments, and a detached two-car garage. Lots of great restaurants and shops close by. Don't wait, or you will miss out on this opportunity. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

18. 2024-08-04
    historical 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Three family money maker located in the highly desired up-and-coming Livingston Manor area with an additional lot for sale as well to the left of the house. Spacious two-bedroom apartment on the first floor, two additional one-bedroom apartments, and a detached two-car garage. Lots of great restaurants and shops close by. Don't wait, or you will miss out on this opportunity. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

19. 2024-01-05
    listed $294,500 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    Three family money maker located in the highly desired up-and-coming Livingston Manor area with an additional lot for sale as well to the left of the house. Spacious two-bedroom apartment on the first floor, two additional one-bedroom apartments, and a detached two-car garage. Lots of great restaurants and shops close by. Don't wait, or you will miss out on this opportunity. Additional Information: HeatingFuel:Oil Above Ground,ParkingFeatures:2 Car Detached,

20. 2023-08-01
    historical
21. 2023-01-29
    status Active
22. 2023-01-29
    price $295,000
23. 2022-12-31
    historical
24. 2022-08-09
    listed $300,000 Active
25. 2019-12-19
    soldstatus $150,000
26. 2019-03-01
    historical
27. 2019-01-30
    price $59,999
28. 2018-11-07
    status Active
29. 2018-11-01
    historical
30. 2018-09-12
    price $79,950
31. 2018-05-09
    listed $109,000 Active
32. 2012-10-30
    historical
33. 2011-05-03
    listed
34. 2003-07-18
    soldstatus $75,000
35. 1987-10-29
    soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,617 · $468/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,617 · $468/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $59,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,497
• − Property taxes: −$5,617
• − Insurance: −$6,591
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,769
• − Management: −$4,769
• − Depreciation: −$8,567
• Taxable income: $12,806
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,073
• After-tax cash flow: $13,283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Manor Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3617580
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,401
• Composite: 44.96/100
• National rank: #5872
• State rank: #456 of 755 in NY

Livability — Livingston Manor

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1173
• US rank: #25609

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Livingston Manor, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,061

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,974 people
• By 2030: 65,609 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 58,878 · -14.6%
• By 2050: 52,500 · -23.9%
• By 2075: 39,941 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 28,880 · -58.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Danish 4% Subsaharan African 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: R (+16.7) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.5pp · 2024: -16.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.7 2020: R+9.2 2016: R+13.7 2012: D+10.4 2008: D+9.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 59.59%
• Current HPI: 446.6757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+375.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-31 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-20 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-04 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-05 Listed $294,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-29 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-29 Price Changed $295,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-09 Listed $300,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-19 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-01-30 Price Changed $59,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-07 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-11-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-12 Price Changed $79,950 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-09 Listed $109,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-30 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2011-05-03 Listed — HGMLS
• 2003-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1987-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,617 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.