2029 Lincoln Ave

New Castle, IN 47362

$109,900F

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 792 sqft · Built 1928 · SingleFamily · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $881/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$185
• Net cashflow: $-11/mo
• Annual: $-131/yr
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.43%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $30,772

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-131/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $88k (19.8% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $88k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#64 in IN, #4,219 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• New Castle Community School Corporation (town): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #229 of 301 in IN (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Henry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 16 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in New Castle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.