4574 Simpson St

Bagdad, FL 32583

$110,900B+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 180 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,635/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$582
• Tax + insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $573/mo
• Annual: $6,874/yr
• Cap rate: 12.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.14%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.47%
• Cash to close: $31,052

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $111k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $111k).
• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $767 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 5.0% in Bagdad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.