4574 Simpson St · Bagdad, FL 32583

$110,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 1955 7,840 sqft lot Est $218k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming Fixer-Upper, Endless possibilities! Located in the heart of historic Bagdad — where small-town charm meets opportunity! Just one block from the public boat launch with fishing, a shaded picnic area, and beautiful waterfront views, this property is ideal for anyone who loves the outdoors or dreams of living near the water. This fenced-in corner lot features a home with great bones and tons of potential. Major updates have already been taken care of, including a 16-year-old metal roof, copper wiring, updated HVAC-estimated 2020 and a premium EcoSmart tankless water heater. The home is connected to city water and sewer. Outside, enjoy the practical and hobby-friendly spaces &md

Key facts

• Fenced-in corner lot
• Waterfront views
• Metal roof

Tags

• PUBLIC BOAT LAUNCH
• WATERFRONT VIEWS
• FENCED-IN CORNER LOT
• METAL ROOF
• COPPER WIRING
• UPDATED HVAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $111k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $111k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 5.0% in Bagdad — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $767 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,592 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.14%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,400
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4550 Church St	0.16mi	2/1.0	1,190 (+13%)	7mo	$87,500	$74	64
4509 Limit St	0.34mi	2/1.5	962 (-8%)	11mo	$205,000	$213	59
4508 Limit St	0.31mi	2/1.5	962 (-8%)	17mo	$200,000	$208	56
4520 Limit St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	920 (-12%)	12mo	$140,000	$152	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $21,062
• Equity at exit: $16,536

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $76,117
• Equity at exit: $9,589

Cash invested: $31,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$582
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,094/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $573

Break-even live

Break-even rent $910

Max offer price $110,900

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,725
• Closing costs: $3,327
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-14
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-14
   listed $110,900 Pending 180 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,094 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,094 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,621
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,212
• − Property taxes: −$1,094
• − Insurance: −$554
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$3,226
• Taxable income: $5,395
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,295
• After-tax cash flow: $5,579/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+10.9% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Pending — PARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $110,900 PARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Relisted — PARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $119,900 PARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Listed $129,900 PARMLS
• 2025-05-26 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $93,500 PARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $95,250 PARMLS
• 2025-04-30 Price Changed $97,500 PARMLS
• 2025-04-23 Listed $100,000 PARMLS

Property tax history

+16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,094 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.