124 Northbay Ct

Glen Carbon, IL 62034

$225,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,910/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$310
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $18/mo
• Annual: $219/yr
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $63,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($219/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (15.1% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $191k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#236 in IL, #4,344 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Edwardsville CUSD 7 (suburban): math 39% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #142 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elementary School (math 40% / reading 33%, grade F, #497 of 2,056 statewide, top 24%, 431 students, 0% FRL); Lincoln Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #191 of 665 statewide, top 30%, 818 students, 0% FRL); Edwardsville High School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #73 of 693 statewide, top 11%, 2,354 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 16% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.1% in Glen Carbon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.