124 Northbay Ct · Glen Carbon, IL 62034

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1999 4,965 sqft lot Est $279k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your dream home in the heart of Glen Carbon! This charming two-story attached villa is perfectly situated right off Highway 159, providing you with easy access to all the amenities the area has to offer. Property Features: • Bedrooms & Baths: Enjoy two spacious bedrooms and four well-appointed baths, ensuring comfort and convenience for you and your guests. • Versatile Spaces: A cozy loft area provides the perfect space for a reading nook or play area, while the dedicated family room or office offers flexibility for your lifestyle needs. • Gourmet Kitchen: The full kitchen comes equipped with all appliances, making meal prep a breeze. It’s designed for

Key facts

• Heart of glen carbon
• Gourmet kitchen
• Move in ready

Tags

• COZY LOFT AREA
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL
• MOVE IN READY
• HEART OF GLEN CARBON

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Electricity connected, sewer connected, water connected
• Home design: Attached single-family residence; Two-story; Living area 2,081 (public records); Above-grade finished area 1,512 (public records); Below-grade finished area 569
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Back yard; Front yard

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on upper level)
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full basement; Two levels; 10 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $18 ($219/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.1% in Glen Carbon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#236 in IL, #4,344 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Edwardsville CUSD 7 (suburban): math 39% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #142 of 620 in IL (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elementary School (math 40% / reading 33%, grade F, #497 of 2,056 statewide, top 24%, 431 students, 0% FRL); Lincoln Middle School (math 37% / reading 33%, grade F, #191 of 665 statewide, top 30%, 818 students, 0% FRL); Edwardsville High School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #73 of 693 statewide, top 11%, 2,354 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 16% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 336 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,961 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.35%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,224
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
107 Bayhill Blvd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,831 (+10%)	5mo	$269,900	$147	77
100 Bayhill Blvd	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,776 (+6%)	7mo	$240,000	$135	77
6 Shingle Oaks Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-1%)	10mo	$275,000	$167	71
120 Bayfield Dr	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,779 (+6%)	17mo	$299,900	$169	59
35 & 36 S Meadow Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,794 (+7%)	7mo	$239,000	$133	56
334 Glen Carbon Rd	0.56mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,677 (+0%)	13mo	$200,000	$119	55
138 Bayfield Dr	0.31mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,770 (+6%)	17mo	$289,900	$164	53
123 Bayfield Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	18mo	$265,000	$184	52
2709 Hunters Crossing Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,780 (+6%)	8mo	$325,000	$183	50
78 Depot Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,810 (+8%)	11mo	$270,000	$149	46
3 Crabapple Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (-11%)	10mo	$255,000	$171	42
42 Old Orchard Ln	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,446 (-14%)	14mo	$250,000	$173	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,309
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-29,294
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62034

• Home prices YoY: -13.7%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,910 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,600/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $18

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $82	+0% $18	+5% $-45	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-133	-5% $-57	+0% $18	+5% $94	+10% $169
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $75	base $18	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Berry Patch Ln Glen Carbon, IL	2.0	2.0	1328	$1,950	$1.47	25d	1	0.59mi
18 Crabapple Ln Glen Carbon, IL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	23d	1	0.61mi
9 Jason Dr Glen Carbon, IL	3.0	3.0	1770	$2,600	$1.47	0d	1	1.06mi
92 Magnolia Dr Glen Carbon, IL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$2,400	$2.37	0d	1	1.26mi
11 S Cherry Hls Edwardsville, IL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1450	$2,299	$1.59	0d	44	1.32mi
1040 University Dr Unit 10 Edwardsville, IL	2.0	2.0	1215	$1,495	$1.23	46d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $225,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $225,000 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 674-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $225,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,600 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,854 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,254/yr (+$104/mo · 48.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,915
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$2,600
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$3,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$870
• After-tax cash flow: $1,089/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edwardsville CUSD 7
• NCES district ID: 1713530
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $72,131
• Composite: 34.56/100
• National rank: #5169
• State rank: #142 of 620 in IL

Livability — Glen Carbon

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #4344

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Glen Carbon, IL
• County: Madison County · 189,064 people
• City population: 14,870
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,870
• Household income: $101,260
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 153.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 258,371 people
• By 2030: 251,523 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 233,640 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 213,042 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 165,255 · -36.0%
• By 2100: 123,953 · -52.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+13.3) · D 42.5% · R 55.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.2pp · 2024: -13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.3 2020: R+13.2 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+1.4 2008: D+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.33%
• Current HPI: 235.3221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Coming Soon $225,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,600 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.