11804 Osprey Pointe Cir

Wellington, FL 33449

$1,649,999D-

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,211 sqft · Built 2001 · SingleFamily · Active · 229 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $12,402/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,653
• Tax + insurance: −$2,338
• HOA: −$315
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,604
• Net cashflow: $-1,508/mo
• Annual: $-18,095/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $462,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $1.65M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.38M (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.24M (24.8% below list).
• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.45M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.24M (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $271 of equity ($11k loan paydown + $-11k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#294 in FL, #4,986 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Palm Beach (suburban): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #34 of 73 in FL (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Panther Run Elementary School (math 85% / reading 82%, grade A+, #60 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 787 students, 19% FRL); Polo Park Middle School (math 65% / reading 68%, grade A-, #84 of 571 statewide, top 16%, 1,156 students, 33% FRL); Palm Beach Central High School (math 42% / reading 55%, grade D, #198 of 667 statewide, top 30%, 2,980 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 52% district-wide (21 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+17 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Palm Beach average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 171 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,974 units permitted in Palm Beach County in 2024 (1,012 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Palm Beach County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 14 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.4% in Wellington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.