7706 Lakeloft Ct

South Run, VA 22039

$1,050,000D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,416 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,500/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,506
• Tax + insurance: −$1,506
• HOA: −$143
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-4,390/mo
• Annual: $-52,681/yr
• Cap rate: 1.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.92%
• DSCR: 0.20
• 1% rule: 0.33%
• Cash to close: $294,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.05M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-53k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (73.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (66.7% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $274k (73.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $112k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $105k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#252 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 9 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $752k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$180k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.