7706 Lakeloft Ct · South Run, VA 22039

$1,050,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1987 0.57 ac lot $435/sqft · 15% above area Est $1288k · 18% under $143/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.9/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market! Offered in "as-is" condition, this is your opportunity to own in the highly sought-after South Run community of Fairfax Station. On over a half acre, this home offers the perfect blend of natural beauty, space, and convenience. Surrounded by mature trees and just moments from scenic trails, parks, and recreational amenities, the neighborhood is known for its peaceful setting and strong sense of community. Residents enjoy easy access to the South Run Recreation Center, Burke Lake Park, and major commuter routes, making it an ideal location for both relaxation and connectivity. With its established charm, spacious homesites, and proximity to top-rated Fairfax County schools, South Run continues to be one of Northern Virginia’s most desirable places to call home. Featuring hardwood flooring throughout the main level and primary suite, with newly installed carpeting on the stairs, upper hallway, and additional bedrooms. The eat-in kitchen is appointed with granite countertops. The cozy family room includes a wood stove insert, mantel, and brick wall. The home is enhanced by upscale trim details throughout, and complemented by plantation shutters on the windows. A main-level study offers flexibility and may serve as a fifth bedroom. Roof replaced in 2022. Windows and siding replaced in 2008/2009.

Key facts

• 0.57 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $1.05M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-53k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (73.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (66.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (73.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#252 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 66 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $112k of equity ($7k loan paydown + $105k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$180k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $752k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,475 (73.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.33% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.92%
• DSCR: 0.20
• GRM: 25.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,288,292
• List price: $1,050,000
• Delta: -18.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7524 Wilderness Way	0.19mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,264 (-6%)	3mo	$1,175,000	$519	73
9920 Jaydee Blvd	0.36mi	4/3.5	2,755 (+14%)	0mo	$1,375,000	$499	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $292,242
• Equity at exit: $945,923

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.68×
• Total profit: $1,080,467
• Equity at exit: $2,039,919

Cash invested: $294,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22039

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 66
• Price-to-rent: 25.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,506
• Tax from tax record: −$1,068 /mo · $12,819/yr
• Insurance: −$438
• HOA: −$143
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-4,390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $9,057

Max offer price $274,475

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $262,500
• Closing costs: $31,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9441 Park Hunt Ct Springfield, VA	3.0	3.5	2072	$3,500	$1.69	22d	1	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $143 · $1,716/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 1348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1348 chars)

   Back on the market! Offered in "as-is" condition, this is your opportunity to own in the highly sought-after South Run community of Fairfax Station. On over a half acre, this home offers the perfect blend of natural beauty, space, and convenience. Surrounded by mature trees and just moments from scenic trails, parks, and recreational amenities, the neighborhood is known for its peaceful setting and strong sense of community. Residents enjoy easy access to the South Run Recreation Center, Burke Lake Park, and major commuter routes, making it an ideal location for both relaxation and connectivity. With its established charm, spacious homesites, and proximity to top-rated Fairfax County schools, South Run continues to be one of Northern Virginia’s most desirable places to call home. Featuring hardwood flooring throughout the main level and primary suite, with newly installed carpeting on the stairs, upper hallway, and additional bedrooms. The eat-in kitchen is appointed with granite countertops. The cozy family room includes a wood stove insert, mantel, and brick wall. The home is enhanced by upscale trim details throughout, and complemented by plantation shutters on the windows. A main-level study offers flexibility and may serve as a fifth bedroom. Roof replaced in 2022. Windows and siding replaced in 2008/2009.

2. 2026-05-10
   status Active 1348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1348 chars)

   Back on the market! Offered in "as-is" condition, this is your opportunity to own in the highly sought-after South Run community of Fairfax Station. On over a half acre, this home offers the perfect blend of natural beauty, space, and convenience. Surrounded by mature trees and just moments from scenic trails, parks, and recreational amenities, the neighborhood is known for its peaceful setting and strong sense of community. Residents enjoy easy access to the South Run Recreation Center, Burke Lake Park, and major commuter routes, making it an ideal location for both relaxation and connectivity. With its established charm, spacious homesites, and proximity to top-rated Fairfax County schools, South Run continues to be one of Northern Virginia’s most desirable places to call home. Featuring hardwood flooring throughout the main level and primary suite, with newly installed carpeting on the stairs, upper hallway, and additional bedrooms. The eat-in kitchen is appointed with granite countertops. The cozy family room includes a wood stove insert, mantel, and brick wall. The home is enhanced by upscale trim details throughout, and complemented by plantation shutters on the windows. A main-level study offers flexibility and may serve as a fifth bedroom. Roof replaced in 2022. Windows and siding replaced in 2008/2009.

3. 2026-05-06
   historical Active Under Contract 1348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1348 chars)

   Back on the market! Offered in "as-is" condition, this is your opportunity to own in the highly sought-after South Run community of Fairfax Station. On over a half acre, this home offers the perfect blend of natural beauty, space, and convenience. Surrounded by mature trees and just moments from scenic trails, parks, and recreational amenities, the neighborhood is known for its peaceful setting and strong sense of community. Residents enjoy easy access to the South Run Recreation Center, Burke Lake Park, and major commuter routes, making it an ideal location for both relaxation and connectivity. With its established charm, spacious homesites, and proximity to top-rated Fairfax County schools, South Run continues to be one of Northern Virginia’s most desirable places to call home. Featuring hardwood flooring throughout the main level and primary suite, with newly installed carpeting on the stairs, upper hallway, and additional bedrooms. The eat-in kitchen is appointed with granite countertops. The cozy family room includes a wood stove insert, mantel, and brick wall. The home is enhanced by upscale trim details throughout, and complemented by plantation shutters on the windows. A main-level study offers flexibility and may serve as a fifth bedroom. Roof replaced in 2022. Windows and siding replaced in 2008/2009.

4. 2026-05-01
   listed $1,050,000 Active 1348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1348 chars)

   Back on the market! Offered in "as-is" condition, this is your opportunity to own in the highly sought-after South Run community of Fairfax Station. On over a half acre, this home offers the perfect blend of natural beauty, space, and convenience. Surrounded by mature trees and just moments from scenic trails, parks, and recreational amenities, the neighborhood is known for its peaceful setting and strong sense of community. Residents enjoy easy access to the South Run Recreation Center, Burke Lake Park, and major commuter routes, making it an ideal location for both relaxation and connectivity. With its established charm, spacious homesites, and proximity to top-rated Fairfax County schools, South Run continues to be one of Northern Virginia’s most desirable places to call home. Featuring hardwood flooring throughout the main level and primary suite, with newly installed carpeting on the stairs, upper hallway, and additional bedrooms. The eat-in kitchen is appointed with granite countertops. The cozy family room includes a wood stove insert, mantel, and brick wall. The home is enhanced by upscale trim details throughout, and complemented by plantation shutters on the windows. A main-level study offers flexibility and may serve as a fifth bedroom. Roof replaced in 2022. Windows and siding replaced in 2008/2009.

5. 2026-04-22
   historical $1,050,000 1348-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1348 chars)

   Back on the market! Offered in "as-is" condition, this is your opportunity to own in the highly sought-after South Run community of Fairfax Station. On over a half acre, this home offers the perfect blend of natural beauty, space, and convenience. Surrounded by mature trees and just moments from scenic trails, parks, and recreational amenities, the neighborhood is known for its peaceful setting and strong sense of community. Residents enjoy easy access to the South Run Recreation Center, Burke Lake Park, and major commuter routes, making it an ideal location for both relaxation and connectivity. With its established charm, spacious homesites, and proximity to top-rated Fairfax County schools, South Run continues to be one of Northern Virginia’s most desirable places to call home. Featuring hardwood flooring throughout the main level and primary suite, with newly installed carpeting on the stairs, upper hallway, and additional bedrooms. The eat-in kitchen is appointed with granite countertops. The cozy family room includes a wood stove insert, mantel, and brick wall. The home is enhanced by upscale trim details throughout, and complemented by plantation shutters on the windows. A main-level study offers flexibility and may serve as a fifth bedroom. Roof replaced in 2022. Windows and siding replaced in 2008/2009.

6. 2009-08-19
   soldstatus $752,500
7. 2009-08-18
   soldstatus $752,500 390-char remark

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Brand New Price * Won't Last Long at This Price * Incredible New Listing * "South Run" Home priced to sell * High Quality Upgrades Thru-Out * Eat-In Kit w/ Granite Cntrs * Main Lvl Library * Beautiful Hdwds * Fam Rm w/ Wood Stove * Main Lvl Laundry * Lux MBA w/ Extravagant Jacuzzi Tub * Fully Fin Bsmt * Sauna * 2+ Car Garage * Amazing 1/2+ Acre-Very Useable, Level Lot.

8. 2009-08-18
   soldstatus $752,500 Sold

   Show marketing remark (390 chars)

   Brand New Price * Won't Last Long at This Price * Incredible New Listing * "South Run" Home priced to sell * High Quality Upgrades Thru-Out * Eat-In Kit w/ Granite Cntrs * Main Lvl Library * Beautiful Hdwds * Fam Rm w/ Wood Stove * Main Lvl Laundry * Lux MBA w/ Extravagant Jacuzzi Tub * Fully Fin Bsmt * Sauna * 2+ Car Garage * Amazing 1/2+ Acre-Very Useable, Level Lot.

9. 2009-08-12
   historical
10. 2009-07-16
    historical Contingent (No Kick Out)
11. 2009-07-12
    historical 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Brand New Price * Won't Last Long at This Price * Incredible New Listing * "South Run" Home priced to sell * High Quality Upgrades Thru-Out * Eat-In Kit w/ Granite Cntrs * Main Lvl Library * Beautiful Hdwds * Fam Rm w/ Wood Stove * Main Lvl Laundry * Lux MBA w/ Extravagant Jacuzzi Tub * Fully Fin Bsmt * Sauna * 2+ Car Garage * Amazing 1/2+ Acre-Very Useable, Level Lot.

12. 2009-06-15
    price $779,900
13. 2009-03-31
    price $799,900
14. 2009-02-26
    listed $819,900

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Brand New Price * Won't Last Long at This Price * Incredible New Listing * "South Run" Home priced to sell * High Quality Upgrades Thru-Out * Eat-In Kit w/ Granite Cntrs * Main Lvl Library * Beautiful Hdwds * Fam Rm w/ Wood Stove * Main Lvl Laundry * Lux MBA w/ Extravagant Jacuzzi Tub * Fully Fin Bsmt * Sauna * 2+ Car Garage * Amazing 1/2+ Acre-Very Useable, Level Lot.

15. 2009-02-26
    listed $779,900 390-char remark

    Show marketing remark (390 chars)

    Brand New Price * Won't Last Long at This Price * Incredible New Listing * "South Run" Home priced to sell * High Quality Upgrades Thru-Out * Eat-In Kit w/ Granite Cntrs * Main Lvl Library * Beautiful Hdwds * Fam Rm w/ Wood Stove * Main Lvl Laundry * Lux MBA w/ Extravagant Jacuzzi Tub * Fully Fin Bsmt * Sauna * 2+ Car Garage * Amazing 1/2+ Acre-Very Useable, Level Lot.

16. 2008-11-24
    historical
17. 2008-11-17
    historical
18. 2008-11-17
    listed
19. 2008-10-02
    listed
20. 2008-09-23
    historical
21. 2008-09-19
    status
22. 2008-09-19
    historical
23. 2008-08-22
    price
24. 2008-08-01
    status
25. 2008-08-01
    historical
26. 2008-04-04
    listed
27. 1987-08-12
    soldstatus $246,706

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $12,819 · $1,068/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,819 · $1,068/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 15% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$58,816
• − Property taxes: −$12,819
• − Insurance: −$5,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − HOA: −$1,716
• − Depreciation: −$30,545
• Taxable loss: −$73,867
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17,728
• After-tax cash flow: $-34,953/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101260
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $110,238
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #679
• State rank: #13 of 131 in VA

Livability — South Run

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #8506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Run, VA
• Population (ZIP): 19,034

Population outlook (Fairfax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,237,259 people
• By 2030: 1,277,758 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,346,508 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 1,397,919 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 1,493,100 · +20.7%
• By 2100: 1,465,712 · +18.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Salvadoran 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 4% Korean 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairfax

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 66.1% · R 31.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.8pp toward D · 2008: 21.2pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+41.9 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+19.8 2008: D+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.94%
• Current HPI: 907.84
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+325.6% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $1,050,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-22 Coming Soon $1,050,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-08-19 Sold (Public Records) $752,500 Public Records
• 2009-08-18 Sold (MLS) $752,500 MRIS
• 2009-08-18 Sold (MLS) $752,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-08-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-07-16 Contingent — MRIS
• 2009-07-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-06-15 Price Changed $779,900 MRIS
• 2009-03-31 Price Changed $799,900 MRIS
• 2009-02-26 Listed $819,900 MRIS
• 2009-02-26 Listed $779,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-11-24 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-11-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-11-17 Listed — MRIS
• 2008-10-02 Listed — MRIS
• 2008-09-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-09-19 Relisted — MRIS
• 2008-09-19 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-08-22 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2008-08-01 Relisted — MRIS
• 2008-08-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-04-04 Listed — MRIS
• 1987-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $246,706 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,819 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.