6948 Swamp Rd

Bergen, NY 14422

$154,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,312/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax + insurance: −$325
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-100/mo
• Annual: $-1,206/yr
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.78%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.85%
• Cash to close: $43,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (15.3% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $131k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#318 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Byron-Bergen Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #348 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Byron-Bergen Elementary School (math 47% / reading 54%, grade D+, #1,053 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 410 students, 54% FRL); Byron-Bergen Junior/Senior High School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 434 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 26% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.