6948 Swamp Rd · Bergen, NY 14422

$154,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1995 0.40 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this spacious ranch-style property offering 1,680 sq ft of comfortable living! Built in 1995 and set on a generous . 40-acre lot, this 3-bedroom, 2 full bath home combines modern updates with a peaceful country setting. Step inside to an inviting open floor plan, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of first-floor laundry and central air for year-round comfort. Major updates include a newer furnace (2018), roof (2020), and added leaf guards on the gutters for low-maintenance exterior care—giving peace of mind to the next owner. The oversized primary suite is a true retreat, featuring a private bath with a relaxing soaking tub, separa

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Newer furnace
• Ranch-style property

Tags

• RANCH-STYLE PROPERTY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• FIRST-FLOOR LAUNDRY
• CENTRAL AIR
• NEWER FURNACE
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-100 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $137k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (15.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (15.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#318 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Byron-Bergen Central School District (rural): math 52% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #348 of 590 in NY (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Byron-Bergen Elementary School (math 47% / reading 54%, grade D+, #1,053 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 410 students, 54% FRL); Byron-Bergen Junior/Senior High School (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #974 of 1,100 statewide, top 91%, 434 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 26% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 55 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.5% local appreciation)).
• Genesee County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $131,220 (15.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.78%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $253
• Equity at exit: $56,812

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $25,959
• Equity at exit: $78,638

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14422

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,312 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,123/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $137,148

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-57	+0% $-100	+5% $-144	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-204	-5% $-152	+0% $-100	+5% $-49	+10% $3
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-61	base $-100	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-11
   listed $154,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,123 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,123 · $260/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$3,123
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,260
• − Management: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$3,854
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$925
• After-tax cash flow: $-281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Byron-Bergen Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3606090
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $55,527
• Composite: 44.57/100
• National rank: #2785
• State rank: #348 of 590 in NY

Livability — Bergen

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #318
• US rank: #5278

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,693

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,113 people
• By 2030: 54,140 · -3.5%
• By 2040: 49,368 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 43,911 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 32,511 · -42.1%
• By 2100: 21,695 · -61.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Romanian 6% Italian 5%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 33.0% · R 67.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+37.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Current HPI: 236.8367
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-04-11 Listed $154,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,123 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.