238 W Skyline Dr

Ballwin, MO 63011

$268,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,183 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,125/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,405
• Tax + insurance: −$310
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$446
• Net cashflow: $-37/mo
• Annual: $-442/yr
• Cap rate: 6.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.59%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $75,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $268k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-37 ($-442/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (20.7% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $212k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#2 in MO, #357 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D.
• Rockwood R-VI (suburban): math 51% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #9 of 324 in MO (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Westridge Elem. (math 47% / reading 57%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 400 students, 20% FRL); Marquette Sr. High (math 53% / reading 79%, grade B, #17 of 521 statewide, top 3%, 2,155 students, 13% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 139 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask is 15665% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $126k; list at $268k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Ballwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.