1225 Bells Mill Rd

Chesapeake, VA 23322

$383,900D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,772 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,072/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,013
• Tax + insurance: −$548
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $-134/mo
• Annual: $-1,613/yr
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.50%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $107,492

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $384k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $360k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $307k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($372k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $307k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $72k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $384k implies a 598% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.