1225 Bells Mill Rd · Chesapeake, VA 23322

$383,900

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,772 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1945 0.91 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An inviting front porch welcomes you and your guests to this four bedroom, for bath home. Interior features include a kitchen island with prep sink and a cozy fireplace in living room. Some work/refreshing is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Perfect canvas for the visionary buyer or seasoned investor.

Key facts

• Prep sink
• Front porch
• Kitchen island

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• PREP SINK
• COZY FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $384k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-131 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $361k (6.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $308k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.7% in Chesapeake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#236 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: crime C-, cost of living C-, amenities F.
• Chesapeake City Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 74% proficiency, ranked #31 of 131 in VA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 596 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 597 units permitted in Chesapeake city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesapeake County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($372k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $72k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $384k implies a 598% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,699 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.46%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $788,348
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1225 Bells Mill Rd	0.00mi	4/4.0	3,712 (-2%)	1mo	$358,785	$97	97
1161 Bells Mill Rd	0.22mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,400 (-10%)	4mo	$640,000	$188	65
809 Falls Creek Dr	0.29mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,447 (-9%)	2mo	$755,000	$219	62
331 Greens Edge Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	3,644 (-3%)	12mo	$847,500	$233	48
1312 False Creek Way	0.32mi	5/2.5 (+1)	3,221 (-15%)	4mo	$672,500	$209	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-65,957
• Equity at exit: $57,241

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-48,806
• Equity at exit: $33,193

Cash invested: $107,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23322

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 596
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,077 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,013
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,660/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $-131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,242

Max offer price $360,812

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $87	-5% $-22	+0% $-131	+5% $-239	+10% $-348
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-252	+0% $-131	+5% $-9	+10% $112
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $-33	base $-131	+0.5pp $-230	+1.0pp $-331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,975
• Closing costs: $11,517
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-08
   status Active
3. 2026-03-26
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-11
   price $383,900
5. 2026-02-19
   price $414,800
6. 2026-01-30
   listed $455,800 Active
7. 2001-11-06
   soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,660 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,660 · $388/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,504
• − Property taxes: −$4,660
• − Insurance: −$1,920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,954
• − Management: −$2,954
• − Depreciation: −$11,168
• Taxable loss: −$8,236
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,977
• After-tax cash flow: $408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesapeake City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100810
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 74% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $69,356
• Composite: 57.84/100
• National rank: #1047
• State rank: #31 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chesapeake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #7942

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chesapeake, VA
• County: Chesapeake City · 253,091 people
• City population: 253,091
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 66,956
• Household income: $134,880
• Rent vs Own: 9.9% rent · 90.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 507.0

Population outlook (Chesapeake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 263,804 people
• By 2030: 276,798 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 299,906 · +13.7%
• By 2050: 318,284 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 362,137 · +37.3%
• By 2100: 372,225 · +41.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesapeake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.3% · R 47.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: 1.3pp · 2024: 3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.8 2020: D+6.5 2016: R+1.3 2012: D+1.1 2008: D+1.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -357.58%
• Current HPI: 312.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.46%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+598.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-08 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $383,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $414,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $455,800 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,660 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.